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1、.人民幣匯率預(yù)期性質(zhì)研究XXX①本文作者均為對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)金融學(xué)專(zhuān)業(yè)08級(jí)碩士研究生摘要：自匯改以來(lái)，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率呈現(xiàn)出單邊上升趨勢(shì)。在這種升值模式下，人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期不減反增，這為我國(guó)的匯率機(jī)制改革帶來(lái)了巨大的難題。人民幣匯率正處于非均衡狀態(tài)，遠(yuǎn)期匯率的升貼水率由匯率預(yù)期決定，因而匯率預(yù)期對(duì)人民幣匯率的作用舉足輕重。本文基于對(duì)預(yù)期理論的研究，通過(guò)構(gòu)建人民幣匯率預(yù)期模型，探討人民幣匯率預(yù)期的性質(zhì)。經(jīng)過(guò)分析，得出匯率預(yù)期表現(xiàn)為適應(yīng)性預(yù)期，升值速度的加快會(huì)進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化升值的預(yù)期。匯率預(yù)期不僅帶來(lái)資本的大規(guī)模流入，還能催生泡沫。因此，打消升值階段人民幣的升值預(yù)期顯得格外重要。文章結(jié)尾提
2、出了匯率機(jī)制改革的相關(guān)政策建議，希望能對(duì)實(shí)踐起到指導(dǎo)性作用。本文選用境外無(wú)本金交割遠(yuǎn)期外匯（NDF）市場(chǎng)的遠(yuǎn)期匯率代表人民幣匯率預(yù)期變量，通過(guò)建立誤差修正模型（ECM）來(lái)研究人民幣匯率預(yù)期的形成機(jī)制及其特點(diǎn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果證實(shí)了人民幣匯率預(yù)期屬于適應(yīng)性預(yù)期。我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的長(zhǎng)期、逐步、緩慢的人民幣升值策略無(wú)益于抑制持續(xù)存在的人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期，并將最終使人民幣面臨持續(xù)的升值壓力。為了有效引導(dǎo)和打消人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期可以從擴(kuò)大匯率彈性、控制升值步伐、完善市場(chǎng)機(jī)制以及培育發(fā)展外匯市場(chǎng)等幾方面入手，推動(dòng)相關(guān)方面的改革。關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率預(yù)期適應(yīng)性預(yù)期NDF市場(chǎng)ABSTRACTAfterthereform
3、oftheexchangeratepolicy，theRMBtothedollarexchangerateshowsaunilateralascendanttrend.Besides,theRMBexpectationofappreciationkeepsincreasingalllong.Thisreallydisturbsourprocessofexchangeratereform.DuetothedisequilibriumofRMBexchangerate,theforwarddiscountorpremiumisdeterminedbytheexchangerateexpec
4、tation.Asaresultofthis,exchangerateexpectationbecomesmoreandmoreimportant.Basedontheresearchofexpectationtheory,weprovedthatexchangerateexpectationbelongstoadaptiveexpectation,whichisusefultoeliminatetheexchangerateexpectation.Expectationcannotonlybringthehotmoneyin,butalsoleadtoabubbleeconomy.S
5、o,attheendofthispaper,wecomeupwithseveralsuggestionswhichareaboutthereformofexchangerate.頁(yè)腳.....mechanism.Wehopethat,someofthesesuggestionswillhaveapositiveeffectonoureconomy.ThispaperselectstheforwardexchangerateofNDFmarkettorepresenttheexchangerateexpectation.ByusingtheECMmodeltostudythemechan
6、ismoftheexpectationformation,thispaperfoundthattheexpectationbelongstoAdaptiveexpectation.ChineseauthoritychoosesaconservativestrategytolettheRMBappreciateslowly,graduallyinrelativelyalongterm,howeverthisstrategywouldnothelptodealwiththeexpectationofappreciationproblem.Inordertoguideandeliminate
7、theexpectationofappreciation,wesuggesttheauthoritytochangethecurrentmechanismfromthefollowingaspects:expandingtheflexibilityoftheexchangerate,controlling,improvingthemarketmechanism,developingtheforeignexchangemarketandsoon.
