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1、人民幣升值對(duì)中美貿(mào)易差額影響實(shí)證探究摘要：近年來，人民幣升值影響了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的神經(jīng)。實(shí)證研究人民幣是否被低估，并進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析是人民幣問題影響到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。為了最大化研究人民幣升值的后果，我們更使用月度數(shù)據(jù)而不是年度數(shù)據(jù)。考慮到中國和美國的實(shí)際情況，我們還利用VAR模型檢驗(yàn)了人民幣升值的跡象，發(fā)現(xiàn)在長期兩者不存在任何因果關(guān)系。關(guān)鍵詞：中美貿(mào)易；人民幣升值；VAR中圖分類號(hào)：F74文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A文章編號(hào)：1673-291X(2013)13-0233-03一、IntroductionTwoyearsago,t
2、heUSSenatepassed“CurrencyExchangeRateOversightReformActof2011”，thedebateaboutexchangeratebetweenChinaandUSbecomeshotagain.Inrecentyears,theUnitedStatesfrequentlyputspressureonChinabytheexchangerateissue?Sinceaseriesofcurrenciesmeasureswereimplementedfrom20
3、05,theUSdollaragainsttheRMBexchangeratedecreasedfrom8.27to6.29,andpusheduptheRMBstillfurther?TheyarguethattheUSinSino-UStradedeficitmaybereducediftheRMBappreciate,sotheyforcetheRMBtoappreciate.ThisarticlewouldnotonlyfindtherelationshipbetweentheSino-UStrad
4、ebalanceandtheRMBexchangeratefluctuation,butalsodiscusshowtheexchangeratesimpactourcountry，simportandexporttrade.Atlast,someviewsaboutthedisputeofSino-USexchangeratearepresented.二、TheliteraturereviewInthe1930s,AbbaLernerstatestha/tifthecurrentaccountisinit
5、iallyzero,arealcurrencydepreciationcausesacurrentaccountsurplusifthesumoftherelativepriceelasticitiesofexportandimportdemandexceeds1.Ifthecurrentaccountisnotzeroinitially,theconditionbecomessubstantiallymorecomplex,thentheexternaldevaluationofthenationalcu
6、rrencywillcertainlybeabletoimproveitstradebalanceofpayments,whichisthefamous^Marshal1-Lernercondition”.Afterthe1980s,economistsincreasinglynotetheproblemofexchangeratepass-through,formingthetheoryofincompleteexchangeratepass-through.Aswellasthechangesinana
7、tionalincome,currencydevaluationcanimprovethetradebalaneeconditions,anddevaluationcausedmorethannationalincometoincreaseexports,whichiscalledLawson-Metzlereffect.Ifwedonottakeintoaccountthetimelagofmonetarydepreciationeffect,duetoexchangeratemovements,thec
8、hangeinfinancialassetpricescanbecompletedinaninstant.Buttheexchangeroteshocksmayaffecttheeconomywithsomelags?Sowhentheexchangeratechanges,thechangeintradeandnationalincomeisrelativelyslow,sothedevaluationofth
