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1、大連理工大學博士學位論文上市公司財務(wù)危機預警模型研究姓名：劉彥文申請學位級別：博士專業(yè)：技術(shù)經(jīng)濟與管理指導教師：欒慶偉;李延喜20090301上市公司財務(wù)危機預警模型研究ResearchontheFinancialCrisisEarlyWarningModelofListedCompaniesAbstractWhilethedog--eat--dogmarketeconomyispregnantwiththeopportunityfordevelopment，therearecountlessriskandcrisishidedinit．Astolistedc
2、ompany，thesituationthatitistitled謝th“ST，’plateandevenforcedtoquitlistingbecauseoffinancialcrisisgrowsmoreandmoreseriously．Itisnotonlythethreattoexistenceanddevelopmentofthecompanyfailingintothefinancialcrisis，butalsobringsenormouslosstoinvestorsandcreditors．Sotoestablishafmancialcri
3、sisearlywarningindexsystemwhichisdisrelatedandcoveredamountofinformation，andbuildupafmancialcrisisearlywarningmodel，hasbecometheimportantaspectofstabilifyingthedevelopmentofstockmarket，nationaleconomy，andsociety．Intheempiricalresearchpartofthispaper,wehaveseparatelyusedLogisticEarly
4、WarningModel，GeneticAlgorithmandNeuralNetworktosetupandtesttheearlywarningmodel．Therearefivepartsinthispaper．Firstly，backgroundofresearchoffinancialriskandresearchsignificanceisintroduced，andthestatueofresearchovertheworldisfurtherintroduced．Secondly，wehaveintroducedtheresearchtheor
5、yofbusinessfinancialcrisis，andsummarizedthedevelopmentofenterprises，meaningofcorporatefinancialcrisisandtheformationofenterprisefinancialcrisis．Thirdly，relatedtheoryoffinancialcrisisearly—warningisexpatiated，andqualitativeandquantitativemethodsoffmancialcrisisearly·warningarerespect
6、ivelyreviewed．Fourthly，weselectedthevariablesandsamplestodesigntheresearch，andextractedprincipalcomponentfactors．ThefifthpartbuildsupthefinancialcrisisearlywarningmodelsbyLogisticEarlyWamingModel，BPNeuralNetworkandGA-BPNeuralNetworkafterextractingprincipalcomponentfactors．Andtheempi
7、ricalresultsarecomparedtogetaconclusion．Atlast，wesummarizetheresearchconclusionandtheshortcomingsofourstudyandsuggestmentsforfurtherstudy．Themaincharacteristicandinnovationofthispaperlieintwoaspects．Firstly，theindexsystemismoreintegrateforincludingnon—financialindexes．Secondly，webui
8、ldupafinancialcrisi
