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1、DAILYSTREAMFLOWFORECASTINGUSINGARTIFICIALNEURALNETWORKSEmrahDO?ANResearchAssist.,SakaryaUniversity,CivilEngineeringDepartment,emrahd@sakarya.edu.trSabahattinI?IKAssist.Prof.SakaryaUniversity,CivilEngineeringDepartment,sisik@sakarya.edu.trTar?kTOLUKMSc.CivilEng.,University,CivilEngineeri
2、ngDepartment,nftoluk@yahoo.comMehmetSANDALCIAssist.Prof.SakaryaUniversityCivilEngineeringDepartment,sandalci@sakarya.edu.trABSTRACTForecastingofstreamflowsisrequiredforproperwaterresourcesplanningandmanagement.Thisstudypresentstheapplicationandcomparisonofartificialneuralnetwork(ANN)app
3、roachesandautoregressive(AR)method.ANNandAR(4)methodsareemployedtopredictdailystreamflowsat?iftelerstationintheSakaryaRiver.ThreedifferentANNmethodssuchasfeed-forwardbackpropagationneuralnetworks(FFNN),radialbasisneuralnetworks(RBNN),andrecurrentneuralnet-works(RNN)areselectedinmodeling
4、hydrologicaltime-seriesandgeneratingsyn-theticstreamflows.Dailystreamflowsof?iftelerbetween1989-1991(1091variables)andbetween1992-1993(486variables)wereusedfortraningandtestperiods,respec-tively.DeterminationcoefficientsofAR(4),FFNN,RBNN,andRNNmodelswerefoundas0.7547,0.9495,0.9479,and0.
5、9991,respectively.Finally,RNNmodelyieldsthebestresultwithadeterminationcoefficientof0.9991.Keywords:Streamflowmodelling,Autoregressivemodel,Artificalneuralnet-workINTRODUCTIONForecastingofstreamflowsarevitalimportantforfloodcaution,operationofflood-control-purposedreservoir,determinatio
6、nofriverwaterpotential,productionofhydroelectricenergy,allocationofdomesticandirrigationwaterindroughtsea-sons,andnavigationplanninginrivers[Bayaz?t,1988].RIVERBASINFLOODMANAGEMENT449Stochasticstreamflowmodelsarecommonlyusedinhydrology.Recently,artifi-calneuralnetwork(ANN)modelsarealsoe
7、mployedtowaterresourcesandhydrol-ogyproblems[Gavinet.al.,2005].Anumberofstudieshavebeenreportedinlitera-ture.Someofthemaregiventhebelow.O?uz[1983]developedamathematicalmodelthatsimulatesmovementsofyearlyflows.Karab?rkandKahya[1998]obtainedmathematicalexpressionsofmul-tivariatep
