revenue forecasts revenue estimates and tax expenditure budgets

revenue forecasts revenue estimates and tax expenditure budgets

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時(shí)間:2018-02-10

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1、CHAPTER12RevenueForecasts,RevenueEstimates,andTaxExpenditureBudgetsReliableandtrustedrevenuepredictionsprovidethefoundationforfiscaldisciplineandfortheadoptionofanexecutablepublicbudget.Participantsinthebudgetprocessneedtoknowhowmuchmoneytherevenuesystemwillyieldinthebudgetperiod,firstasit

2、exists,andthenwithproposedchanges.Forfiscaltransparency,budgetparticipantsalsoneedtoknowthecostofcarryingoutsubsidyprogramsthroughtaxsystempreferencesratherthanthroughdirectexpenditures.Thepredic-tionsarenevercertainbecauseprivateeconomicbehaviorisnotcertain,andiftheprivateeconomy—thesourc

3、eofgovernmentrevenueinamarketeconomy—isun-certain,sotoowillberevenueyield.Nonetheless,bestavailablepredictionsarenec-essaryfordevelopingthebudget,forpreparinglong-termfiscalprofiles,forunderstandingtheimplicationsoffiscaldecisionsbeingconsidered,andforshort-termcash-flowforecasting.Financi

4、almanagementwithouttrustworthyrevenuepredictionsisnotmeaningful.Threedistinctrevenuepredictiontasksplayaprominentroleinpublicfinancialmanagement:therevenueforecast(orbaseline),revenueestimates(orfiscalnotesorscores),andtaxexpenditures.Approaches,methods,andskillsrequired,aswellasor-ganizat

5、ionalresponsibilityfortheirpreparation,typicallydiffer,althoughthetax-collectingagency—thetaxservice,treasury,orrevenuedepartment—istherepositoryofbasicdatausedineach.Thetaxcollectionagency(mostlyaccountantsandlawyers)likelydoesnothavetheappropriatetechnicalstaff(mostlyeconomistsandstatist

6、icians)todevelopthemodelsandproceduresnecessaryforthepredictions,butthecollectorsserveasaconduitofexpertdatatothosepreparingthepredictions.Officialforecastsandestimatesmaycomefromexecutivebudgetagencies,legisla-tivefiscalstaff,orconsensusgroupsrepresentingboththelegislatureandtheexecu-tive

7、.Ofcourse,therearemanyinterestgroups,lobbyists,consultants,andsoon,567568PartTwo:RevenueSources,Structure,andAdministrationwhodevisetheirownforecastsandestimatesofvaryingtrustworthinessfortheir1clientsanddistributethemtowhomeveringovernmentwillpayattention.2Re

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