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1、CHAPTER12RevenueForecasts,RevenueEstimates,andTaxExpenditureBudgetsReliableandtrustedrevenuepredictionsprovidethefoundationforfiscaldisciplineandfortheadoptionofanexecutablepublicbudget.Participantsinthebudgetprocessneedtoknowhowmuchmoneytherevenuesystemwillyieldinthebudgetperiod,firstasit
2、exists,andthenwithproposedchanges.Forfiscaltransparency,budgetparticipantsalsoneedtoknowthecostofcarryingoutsubsidyprogramsthroughtaxsystempreferencesratherthanthroughdirectexpenditures.Thepredic-tionsarenevercertainbecauseprivateeconomicbehaviorisnotcertain,andiftheprivateeconomy—thesourc
3、eofgovernmentrevenueinamarketeconomy—isun-certain,sotoowillberevenueyield.Nonetheless,bestavailablepredictionsarenec-essaryfordevelopingthebudget,forpreparinglong-termfiscalprofiles,forunderstandingtheimplicationsoffiscaldecisionsbeingconsidered,andforshort-termcash-flowforecasting.Financi
4、almanagementwithouttrustworthyrevenuepredictionsisnotmeaningful.Threedistinctrevenuepredictiontasksplayaprominentroleinpublicfinancialmanagement:therevenueforecast(orbaseline),revenueestimates(orfiscalnotesorscores),andtaxexpenditures.Approaches,methods,andskillsrequired,aswellasor-ganizat
5、ionalresponsibilityfortheirpreparation,typicallydiffer,althoughthetax-collectingagency—thetaxservice,treasury,orrevenuedepartment—istherepositoryofbasicdatausedineach.Thetaxcollectionagency(mostlyaccountantsandlawyers)likelydoesnothavetheappropriatetechnicalstaff(mostlyeconomistsandstatist
6、icians)todevelopthemodelsandproceduresnecessaryforthepredictions,butthecollectorsserveasaconduitofexpertdatatothosepreparingthepredictions.Officialforecastsandestimatesmaycomefromexecutivebudgetagencies,legisla-tivefiscalstaff,orconsensusgroupsrepresentingboththelegislatureandtheexecu-tive
7、.Ofcourse,therearemanyinterestgroups,lobbyists,consultants,andsoon,567568PartTwo:RevenueSources,Structure,andAdministrationwhodevisetheirownforecastsandestimatesofvaryingtrustworthinessfortheir1clientsanddistributethemtowhomeveringovernmentwillpayattention.2Re
