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1、h基于云模型的城市極端雨洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究#王賀1,3，劉高峰2,3，王慧敏1,3**510152025303540（1.河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院，南京211100；2.河海大學(xué)企業(yè)管理學(xué)院，常州213022；3.河海大學(xué)水文水資源與水利工程國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，南京210098）摘要：構(gòu)建最大24h降雨量、平均淹沒水深、淹沒歷時(shí)、受災(zāi)人口率、受災(zāi)面積率、GDP損失率6個(gè)指標(biāo)，綜合運(yùn)用層次分析法和熵權(quán)法確定各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，通過云模型定量評(píng)價(jià)各指標(biāo)下風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的等級(jí)，建立基于正態(tài)云模型的極端雨洪下城市洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。對(duì)景德鎮(zhèn)極端雨洪引發(fā)的洪水進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)，得到1990—2012年景德鎮(zhèn)每年的風(fēng)
2、險(xiǎn)等級(jí)，找出引發(fā)洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)鍵因素。結(jié)果表明，景德鎮(zhèn)深受洪水的影響，平均淹沒水深與淹沒歷時(shí)對(duì)洪水產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有重大影響。通過大量植樹造林，增加透水面積；新建排水設(shè)施，清理城市排水管道，可以有效的降低景德鎮(zhèn)極端雨洪帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。云模型對(duì)于研究極端雨洪造成的城市洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有良好的效果。關(guān)鍵詞：云模型；城市極端雨洪災(zāi)害；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中圖分類號(hào)：X43ResearchonUrbanExtremeRainstormsFloodLossBasedonCloudModelWANGHe1,3,LIUGaofeng2,3,WANGHuimin1,3(1.InstituteofManagementScie
3、nce,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing211100;2.CollegeofBusinessAdministration,Changzhou213022;3.StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrology-WaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098)Abstract:Effectivelyevaluateurbanextremestormflooddisasterlossisnotonlyascientificbasisformanagementofurbanf
4、looddisaster,butalsoaprerequisitetotakereasonableprecautions.Urbanextremerainstormfloodsformingprocessisverycomplex,involvingmanyuncertainties.Accuratelydescribingandexpressingtheseuncertaintiesisthekeytoeffectivelyevaluateflooddamage.Cloudmodelisanintelligentscientificmethodsbasedonuncertai
5、ntyanalysis.Usingexistingtheoreticalapproaches,atotalofsixassessmentindexeswereconsidered,suchasMaximum24hrainfall,AverageInundatedDepths,etc.WeintegratedAHPandentropyweightmethodtodeterminetheweightofeachindex,quantitativeassessedthelosslevelundereachindexbythenormalcloudmodel,establishedur
6、banextremerainstormsflooddamageevaluationmodelbasedonnormalcloudmodel.Finally,weevaluatedthefloodlossestriggeredbyextremerains,obtainedJingdezhen’annuallosslevelfrom1990to2012,foundoutthekeyfactorsthatcauseflooddamageandimprovedit.TheresultsshowsthatAverageInundatedDepthsandInundatedlastedha
7、veasignificantimpactonflood.Accordingtothecity'stopographyandurbandrainagenetwork,wedividethecityintosomepartition,determineeachpartition’sfloodstoragecapacityandthepartition’swaterloggingplanningprinciples.Draftingeachpartition’swaterloggingscheme
