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1、h基于云模型的極端雨洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警研究——以景德鎮(zhèn)為例#王賀1,3，劉高峰2,3，王慧敏1,3**510152025303540（1.河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院，南京211100；2.河海大學(xué)企業(yè)管理學(xué)院，常州213002；3.河海大學(xué)水文水資源與水利工程國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室，南京210098）摘要：城市極端雨洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警是一個(gè)涉及自然、社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)等多因素的動(dòng)態(tài)變化的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)。為了分析不同時(shí)間、不同下墊面對(duì)雨洪災(zāi)害的影響程度，為有關(guān)部門提供及時(shí)、準(zhǔn)確的雨洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警結(jié)果，利用兩維圖論聚類法將城市分為若干個(gè)相對(duì)獨(dú)立的區(qū)域，根據(jù)各個(gè)獨(dú)立區(qū)域的實(shí)際情況分別創(chuàng)建4個(gè)相應(yīng)降水等級(jí)的正態(tài)云和統(tǒng)一的極端雨洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)
2、險(xiǎn)等級(jí)，建立基于云模型的城市極端雨洪災(zāi)害預(yù)警模型，對(duì)相同降雨降到不同地方和不同時(shí)間段降雨降到相同地方所引起的雨洪災(zāi)害進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)警。結(jié)果表明，極端暴雨降臨時(shí)，城西片區(qū)、浮梁縣城片區(qū)和城東片區(qū)遭受的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)較高，隨著時(shí)間的推移，其等級(jí)逐步由三級(jí)升到四級(jí)，而電廠片區(qū)和呂蒙航空基地片區(qū)遭受的災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)相對(duì)較低，最高不超過(guò)三級(jí)。利用云模型可以對(duì)景德鎮(zhèn)各個(gè)區(qū)域各個(gè)時(shí)間段的災(zāi)害等級(jí)進(jìn)行及時(shí)、準(zhǔn)確的動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)警。關(guān)鍵詞：云模型；城市極端雨洪；災(zāi)害預(yù)警中圖分類號(hào)：X43WarningonUrbanExtremeRainstormsFlooddisasterbasedonCloudModelWA
3、NGHe1,3,LIUGaofeng2,3,WANGHuimin1,3(1.BusinessSchool,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing211100;2.CollegeofBusinessAdministration,HohaiUniversity,Changzhou213002;3.StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrology-WaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098)Abstract:UrbanExtremerainfallflooddisasterw
4、arningisacomplexsystemwhichisamatterofdynamicchangesinnatural,social,economicandotherfactors.Inordertoanalyzetherainwaterdisasters’influenceofdifferentunderlyingsurfaceinthedifferenttime,providerainwaterdisasterwarningresultstimelyandaccuratefortherelevantdepartments,weshoulddosomedynamicwar
5、ningabouttheraindownindifferentplacesonthesameperiodoftimeandinthesameplacesonthedifferentperiodoftime.WedividethecityintoanumberofrelativelyindependentareasthroughTwo-dimensionalgraphtheoryclusteringmethod,gatherthedatethatlossesaccountedformorethan0.5%ofcity'sGDPcausedbyextremestorms,estab
6、lishfourcorrespondinglevelsofnormalcloudaccordingtotheactualsituationofeachindividualregionandaunifiedextremerainfallflooddisasterrisklevel.Theresultshowsthatwhenextremestormcomes,someregionssufferfromahigherlevelriskoflosssuchasthewestandeastofthecity,Fu-Liangareas,itslevelrosefromⅢtoⅣwitht
7、hepassageoftime,butsomeregionssufferfromalowerlevelriskoflosssuchastheDian-Changareaandtheairarea,itshighestlevelisnotmorethanⅢ.Wecandothetimely,accuratedynamicwarningforeachregionandeachtimeperiod’sdisasterlevelaboutJingdezhenbycloudmodel.基金項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家自
