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1、Contents1Introduction‘l1．1Researchbackgroundandsignificance··’l1．2Literaturereview····-·--···-···一11．2．1MarkofinternationalfoodgrainPrice11．2．2Trackofinternationalfoodgrainpricevolatility21．2．3Qualitativeanalysisofinternationalfoodgrainpricevolatility。41．2．4Quan
2、titativeanalysisofinternationalfoodgrainpricevolatility91．2．5Countermeasure-．-101．2．6Literaturecomment·--·--t--·t··--一111．3Researchmethods&framework一121．3．1Researchmethods···-121．3．2Researchframework‘121．4Innovationanddefect-一122TheOverviewandfeaturesofInternati
3、onalfoodgrainpricesvolatility——takewheatasexample·152．1HistoricalvolatilityTrack·152．2neanalysisofcyclicalfluctuations··。’162-2．1Long-termIrendanalysis’172．2．2CyclicalcomponentAnalysis-‘182．3Chaptersummary’·203Theoryanalysisofinternationalfoodgrainpricevolatilit
4、yfactors’213．1TheoreticalBasis一2l3．1．1Marx’Stheoryofvalue‘213．1．2Generalizedtheoryofsupply&demandbasedonMarx’Svaluetheory223．2FactorsanalysisofFluctuationsintemationalfoodgrainpricevolatility313．2．1FundamentalsofSupply&demand一一Phy’sicalLevel’313．2．2Non-fundament
5、alsupply&demand——Ⅵ咖alLevel434EmpiricalAnalysisofinternationalfoodgrainpricevolatility484．1F慫硝Rmodel．··-一484．2TheEstimationofmodel··-··494．3Variablesettingsanddataprocessing494．4EmpiricalAnalysis--······‘51III萬方數(shù)據(jù)4．4．1EmpiricalAnalysisbasedonGeneralizedTheoryofsu
6、pply&demand(January1990一June2015)‘564．4．2EmpiricalAnalysisofGeneralizedTheoryofsupplyanddemand(January1990-December2005)634．4．3EmpiricalAnalysisofGeneralizedTheoryofsupply&demand(January2006．June2015)·······684．5Chaptersummary·‘735ConelusionsandCountermeasure一75
7、5．1Mainconclusion···755．2Countermeasure·755．2．1Increasedomesticfoodgrainproductionandprotectdomesticbasicsupply·_765．2．2Strengtheninternationalcooperationandbroadenthespaceofinternationalfoodgrainimports一765．2．3Strengthentheyuanassettlementcurrenciesininternatio
8、nalgraintradeandweakeningthebundlingofUSdollaragainsttheglobalfoodgrain·。775．2．4EstablishauthoritativeInternationalfoodgrainmonitoringorganizationandworldwidepre—warn
