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《氣候變化和人類活動對水資源的影響的的研究——以北洛河流域為例》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、AbstractSincethe1970s，theglobalclimatehaschangedimmenselyandhuman’Sactivitieshaveincreasednotably,whichhavegreaterinfluenceonwaterresources．Theclimatechangeswillchangethecurrentconditionoftheglobalhydrologiccycleandleadtotherearrangementsinspaceandtimeandchangesinquantityo
2、fwaterresources，whichhaveadirectimpactonrainfall，evaporation，runoff,soilhumidityandSOon．Besides，thesehugechangeswillalsoresultintheaggravationofhydrologiccycleandaffecttheregionalwaterresources．Human’Sactivitiesarelikelytoinfluencemechanismofrunoffproducingandconfluencethr
3、oughchangingwatershedunderlayingsurfaceandhaveadeepimpactonriverrunoff．Inrecentyears，、Ⅳitllthecombinedeffectsofthefrequentincreasesofhuman’Sactivitiesandthestrongerosionofnaturalfactors，runoffdecreasedandseasonalcutoffintheNorthernLuoRiverBasinhavebecamemoreandmoreserious，
4、whichseriouslyaffectedwaterresourcesdevelopmentandutilization．Therefore，studyingtheeffectsofclimatechangesandhuman’SactivitiesonwaterresourcesoftheNorthemLuoRiverBasinhavegreatsignificancetothelayout，theoperationmanagementandthereasonableexploitationofregionalwaterresource
5、s．What’Smore，thestudywillbevitallybeneficialtobuildthewatersavingsociety．Themainresultsaleasfollows：1)Variationtrendsofhydro-meterologicalfactorssuchasprecipitation，evaporationandrunoffintheNorthernLuoRiverbasinwereanalyzedwithmovingaveragemethodandSpearmanrankcorrelationm
6、ethodrespectively．Theresultsshowthattheyalealldeclining．2)Thispaperanalyzedtherunofftimeseriesfrom1959to1999oftheLiujiaRiverandJiaokouRiverhydrologicalstationontheNorthemLuoRiverbyR／Sanalysismethod．Theresultsshowthat1978isthetransitionpointofhydrologicalseriesoftheNorthern
7、LuoRiverBasin，andhumanactivitieshaveaffectedsignificantlyonhydrologyoftheNorthernLuoRiverBasinafterl978．3)Usingthehydrologicalandmeteorologicaldatainnaturalenvironment，theBPneuralnetworkmodelparameterswerecalibratedfirst，thenkeptthemodelparametersconstant，thenaturalrunoffi
8、nhumanactivitiesaffectperiodwasgottenthroughinputtingthehydrologicmeteorologicaldatainthe
