2、.Next,wegetthenumberofthepeopleinfectedof2004-2025years,andgettheexpressiony?byusingthefittingmethod.Basedontheaboveresults,weusethemethodoffittingagain,byfittingthenumberofpatientsfrom1977to2025.Weusethedataof1977?2025andtheGraypredictionmodeltogetthey5(=387.2840I82,lz-386.284
3、).Bycomparing乃withy°wecanseethatthetwoexpressionsarebothexponentialdistribution,thusverifythatourhypothesisiscorrect.Finally.bycalculatingthedifferentialof),3,thechangeofrateofthepeopleinfectedfrom2006to2025wasobtained,andtheexpression)『isy3,=1.3xlO,6x4/9.2xlO18-27397x3/25OO+3271
4、5x2-434O4OOOx+2.2xlO102.Forthesecondquestion,weestablishaparametermodel.andassumethefactorswhichinfluencethenecessityofdevelopadrugastheidealformofparameters.Underthekindsofidealhypothesis,relationshipsofinfluenceandconstraintamongfactorscanbeobtained.Byanalyzingtherelationshipso
5、fthesefactors,wedrawablockdiagramtoshowourmodel.UsethelawofpopulationgrowthofthenaturetoestimatethedeadlineoftheR&Dofthenewdrug.TaketheEbolavirusinthequestion1forexample,weoutputthetrendofthenumberofthevirusafterusingthenewdrugbyusingsomeassumedconditionsandthedeadlineis2025.3eFo
6、rthethirdquestion,taketheEbolavirusforexample,andanalysisthefactorswhichmakeinfluenceontheenthusiasmofthepharmaceuticalenterprises.Takethecurrentandlong-termintoaccount,simplifythemodelandreflecttheinfluentialfactionsatthesametime,andanalysistheconclusion,proposaltherewardpolicyt
7、oimprovetheenthusiasmofthecompanies.4eForthelastquestionjfwewantthegovernmenttoselectthesuitableenterprises,weshouldfindthereasonthatexistenceofthecontradictions.bythismeans,asthebreakthroughpointjnakeaspecificplanandstep^andfinally,chosetheenterpriseweneed.Keywords:Greypredictio
8、nmodel;Interpolation;Fitting;Parametrich