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1、對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文EmpiricalAnalysisoftheImpactofExchangeRateChangeonPrice姓名:張斌申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別:碩士專業(yè):金融學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師:林桂軍201103AbstractPricesandexchangeratesarethecoreoftheeconomicvariablesinanopeneconomy,andtherearealsoextremelycloserelationshipbetweenthesetwoeconomicvariables·Inthecontinuousdevelopme
2、ntofthehistoryofexchangeratetheory,thepriceandexchangeraterelationshiphavealwaysbeenintertwined.Afterreformand0penj.吡gupfor30years,China’seconomyhastransformedfromahighlycentralizedplannedeconomytowardsafreeandopenmarketeconomy.ThispaperistotestwhetherLawofOnePriceiseffectiveinC
3、hinaandonwhatextentitcantakeeffect.ChapteronereviewshistoryofRenminbiexchangerate,Chaptertwogenerallyreviewstherelationsl邱betweenexchangerateandprice,Chapterthreeistheempiricalanalysisofinnuenceofexchangerateondomesticprice.Firstconfn'mthevariables:domesticandforeignCPI。theRMBex
4、changerate,thenuseADFTest,Co.integrationTesttoinvestigatetheinfluenceofexchangerateondomesticpriceandanalyzes廿leresultsofthemodelandChapterfourbringsforwardsuggestions.Keywords:exchangeratechange;pricelevd;Consumerpriceindex(CPI);ADFTest;Co-integrationmodelChapter1Introduction1.
5、1OverviewAfterreformandopeningupfor30years,China’Seconomyhastransformedfromahighlycentralizedplannedeconomytoafreeandopenmarketeconomy.RMBexchangeratesystem,aSanimportantmacropolicytool,hasexperiencedfourimportantreform.From1979to1984,lU仍exchangeratechangedfromsingletocomplexthe
6、nagaintoasinglecurrencyexchangerate.From1985~1993,theofficialexchangerateandcurrencyexchangerateadjustpricecoexist.Since1994,Chinaimplementedasingle,managedfloatingexchangeratethatbasedonmarketdemandandsupply.UntilJuly21st,2005,RMBbegantostoppeggingtodollar,ithasimplementedamana
7、gedfloatingexchangeratesystemthatbasedonmarketdemandandsupplywinlreferencetoabasketofcurrencies.Accordingtothepeople’SbankofChina’SmiddlepricedatastatisticsoftheRMBexchangerate,overthepastthreeyearsofnewyuanreformpractice,themiddlepriceofRMBagainstdollarreachedrecordhigh,uptoJul
8、y2008ithasrisenby21%.Meanwhile,theconsumerprice