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1、匯率形成的微觀分析（Microanalysisofexchangerateformation）MicroanalysisofexchangerateformationXiJunyangCengZhenyuGuangdongSocialSciences,2005,issuefirstAbstract:Basedonthemacroeconomicvariablesasdeterminantsofthetraditionalexchangeratemodelandshort-termvolatilitycannotexplaintheexchangerate,thereasoni
2、sthatthemodelimplied"investorshomogeneity,publicinformation,tradingsystemindependentassumptiondoesnotactuallymeet.Inrecentyears,thenewanalysismethodofexchangeratemicromarketputforwardthetheoryofinformationdecentralization.Onthisbasis,themechanismofinformationintegrationintothespotexchangera
3、teunderincompleteinformationisestablished.Keywords:publicinformation;privateinformation;marketmicrostructure;instructionflowI.IntroductionAfterthecollapseofBrettonWoodssystem,theinternationalmonetarysystemhasenteredtheeraoffloatingexchangerates,themainstreamtheoryofexchangerate,suchasthepur
4、chasingpowerparitytheorytoexplaintheexchangerateofthesharpfluctuation,sotheacademiccirclesattempttoseeknewanswers.Inthemiddleof1970s,assetmarkettheorycameintobeinggradually.However,theassetmarkettheory,suchastheflexiblepricemonetarymodel,thestickypricemonetarymodelandtheportfoliomodelwhilet
5、heexchangeratefluctuationsonthe1920and1930sandmid1970shasgoodexplanatorypower,butnottothesampleperiodextendedtoempiricalresearchin1978afterthesupport.By1990s,ObstfeldandRogoff(1995)proposedthedynamicexchangeratemodel,whichwasregardedasapioneeringresearchinthefieldofopenmacroeconomics.Inthed
6、ynamicexchangeratemodelofObstfeldandRogoff,thedeterminantsofexchangeratearestillmacroeconomicvariables,suchasrelativemoneysupplyandrelativeconsumptionlevel.However,Bergin(2001)showsthattheempiricaltestontheexchangerateofthesamplewiththedynamicmodelofCanada,AustraliaandtheUK,inthepredictiono
7、fthenominalexchangerateandrealexchangerate,exchangeratepredictionerrordynamicmodelisstillgreaterthantherandomprocess.FrankelandRose(1995)thatreviewstheempiricalresultsoftheexchangeratetheory:"asthecenterofeconomicvariables,exceptinsomeextremecases,suchas
