Vaclav Smil - Energy at the Crossroads_ Global Perspectives and Uncertainties (2003, The MIT Press)

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1、EnergyattheCrossroadsAlsobyVaclavSmilChina’sEnergyEnergyintheDevelopingWorldEnergyAnalysisinAgricultureBiomassEnergiesTheBadEarthCarbon-Nitrogen-SulfurEnergy,Food,EnvironmentEnergyinChina’sModernizationGeneralEnergeticsChina’sEnvironmentalCrisisGlobalEcologyEnergyinWorldHistoryC

2、yclesofLifeEnergiesFeedingtheWorldEnrichingtheEarthTheEarth’sBiosphereEnergyattheCrossroadsGlobalPerspectivesandUncertaintiesVaclavSmilTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England?2003MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyfor

3、mbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.ThisbookwassetinSabonbyAchornGraphicServices,Inc.PrintedonrecycledpaperandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-

4、PublicationDataSmil,Vaclav.Energyatthecrossroads:globalperspectivesanduncertainties/VaclavSmil.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-262-19492-9(hc.:alk.paper)1.Energypolicy.2.Energypolicy—UnitedStates.3.Energypolicy—China.4.Energypolicy—Environmentalaspects.5.Ene

5、rgydevelopment—Technologicalinnovations.6.Globalization—Environmentalaspects.7.Powerresources—Politicalaspects—History.8.Petroleumindustryandtrade—Politicalaspects—History.9.History,Modern.I.Title.HD9502.A2S5432003333.79—dc21200204522210987654321ContentsAcknowledgmentsviiRe?ecti

6、onsonaLifeofEnergyStudiesix1Long-termTrendsandAchievements1AUniqueCentury3ChangingResourceBase10TechnicalInnovations21TheRisingImportanceofElectricity31TradingEnergy44ConsumptionTrends49LookingBackandLookingAhead602EnergyLinkages63EnergyandtheEconomy65DeconstructingEnergyIntensi

7、ties71EnergyPrices81RealCostsofEnergy88EnergyandtheQualityofLife97EnergyandtheEnvironment105EnergyandWar1163AgainstForecasting121FailingEndeavors122ConversionTechniques124PrimaryEnergyRequirements137DemandforElectricity145EnergyPricesandIntensities149viContentsSubstitutionsofEne

8、rgyResources161ComplexModelsandRealities167Unex