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《Vaclav Smil - Global Catastrophes and Trends_ The Next Fifty Years (2008, The MIT Press)》由會員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、GlobalCatastrophesandTrendsAlsobyVaclavSmilChinasEnergyEnergyintheDevelopingWorld(editor,withW.E.Knowland)EnergyAnalysisinAgriculture(withP.NachmanandT.V.LongII)BiomassEnergiesTheBadEarthCarbonNitrogenSulfurEnergyFoodEnvironmentEnergyinChinasModernizationGeneralEnergeticsChinasEnvironmentalCrisisGlo
2、balEcologyEnergyinWorldHistoryCyclesofLifeEnergiesFeedingtheWorldEnrichingtheEarthTheEarthsBiosphereEnergyattheCrossroadsthCreatingthe20CenturythTransformingthe20CenturyEnergy:ABeginnersGuideEnergyinNatureandSocietyOil:ABeginnersGuideGlobalCatastrophesandTrendsTheNext50YearsVaclavSmilTheMITPressCamb
3、ridge,MassachusettsLondon,England?2008MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Forinformationaboutspecialqua
4、ntitydiscounts,pleaseemailspecial_sales@mitpress.mit.eduThisbookwassetinSabonbySNPBest-setTypesetterLtd.,HongKong.PrintedonrecycledpaperandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataSmil,Vaclav.Globalcatastrophesandtrends:thenext?ftyyears/VaclavSmil.p.cm.Includesbi
5、bliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-262-19586-7(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Naturaldisasters.2.Environmentalriskassessment.I.Title.GB5014.S582008363.34—dc22200704667510987654321ContentsPreface:WhattoExpectvii1How(Not)toLookAhead12FatalDiscontinuities9NaturalCatastrophes13EncounterswithExtraterrestri
6、alObjects16VolcanicMega-eruptionsandCollapses28In?uenzaPandemics38ViolentCon?icts49TransformationalWars50TerroristAttacks58ImaginableSurprises663UnfoldingTrends71EnergyTransitions75DominantFuels,EnduringPrimeMovers77Solar(Nuclear?)Civilization82NewWorldOrder91EuropesPlace92JapansDecline102IslamsChoi
7、ce110RussiasWay120ChinasRise129TheUnitedStatesRetreat141PlaceonTop153DominanceandDecline154GlobalizationandInequality163viContents4EnvironmentalChange171GlobalWarmingandItsConsequences172RisingTempera
