[SenseAboutScience]Making Sense of Statistics.pdf

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1、SENSEABOUTSCIENCEANdSTrAIghTSTATISTICSMAkINgSENSEOfSTATISTICSPublicationsOtherpublicationsbySenseAboutScienceAllareavailableasfreedownloadsfromwww.senseaboutscience.orgMakingSenseofTesting:whyscansandhealthtestsforwellpeoplearen’talwaysaScienceandCelebriti

2、esreviewgoodidea(2006,2007,2008)MakingSenseofScreening:aguidetoweighingupthebenefitsandharmsofhealthscreeningprogrammesStandingupforScience:aguidetothemediaforearlycareerscientistsMakingSenseofradiation:aguidetoradiationanditshealtheffectsStandingupforScie

3、nceII:thenutsandboltsMakingSenseofChemicalStories:abriefingdocumentforthelifestylesectorTheregoestheScienceBit...ahuntforonmisconceptionsaboutchemicalstheevidenceMakingSenseofgM:whatisthegeneticmodificationofplantsandwhyarescientists“Idon’tknowwhattobeliev

4、e”:ashortguidedoingit?topeerreviewMakingSenseofWeather&Climate:anintroductiontoforecastsandpredictionsofPeerreviewandtheAcceptanceofNewweathereventsandclimatechangeScientificIdeas“I’vegotnothingtolosebytryingit”:aguidetoweighingupclaimsaboutcuresandtreatme

5、ntsIntroductionStatisticsareusedtomeasureandmakesenseoftheworld.TheyareproducedbytheGovernment,politicalparties,thecivilservice,goodstatistics,badstatisticstheBankofEngland,opinionpolls,campaigngroups,socialresearch,scientificpapers,newspapersandmore.Butwh

6、enconfrontedwithstoriessuchas“Crimeraterisingagain”,“PollsputToriesupto7%ahead”,“Childheartsurgeryhaltedathospitalafterfourdeaths”or“Swineflu‘couldkillupto120m’”,howcanweworkoutwhethertobelievethemandwhattheyreallymean?Statisticscanbehypedandsensationalise

7、dbytheuseofanextremevaluetomakeastorymoredramaticorbyreportingarelativeincreaseinriskwithoutincludingtheabsolutechange.Datamaybeanalysedandpresentedindifferentwaystosupportcontradictoryargumentsortoreachdifferentconclusions,whetherdeliberatelyorbymistake.B

8、utwhilestatisticscanbemisrepresented,theycanalsounpickarguments.Byknowingtherightquestionstoaskwecandiscriminatebetweentheproperuseofstatisticsandtheirmisuse.Weaskedstatisticians,journalistsandscientiststotel