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1、沖破重圍高善文2010年12月內(nèi)容提要?美元貶值與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)(1970-1980)?當(dāng)前通貨膨脹的根源和走向?大小盤估值：風(fēng)格還是周期？?短期經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場(chǎng)的判斷美元名義有效匯率1601501401301201101009080197019711972197419751976197819791980198219831984198619871988199019911992199419951996199819992000200220032004200620072008數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券日元、德國(guó)馬克、英鎊兌美元匯率指數(shù)(1970=100)190德國(guó)馬克日元英鎊
2、170150130110907050Jan/70Jun/70Nov/70Apr/71Sep/71Feb/72Jul/72Dec/72May/73Oct/73Mar/74Aug/74Jan/75Jun/75Nov/75Apr/76Sep/76Feb/77Jul/77Dec/77May/78Oct/78Mar/79Aug/79Jan/80Jun/80Nov/80數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券德、日、英、美通脹指數(shù)（1970Q1=100）德國(guó)日本英國(guó)美國(guó)400350300250200150100Mar/70Aug/70Jan/71Jun/71Nov/71Apr/72Sep/72
3、Feb/73Jul/73Dec/73May/74Oct/74Mar/75Aug/75Jan/76Jun/76Nov/76Apr/77Sep/77Feb/78Jul/78Dec/78May/79Oct/79Mar/80Aug/80數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券美、日、英、德股市指數(shù)（1970=100）S&P500DAX30NIKKEI225FT302902401901409040Jan/70Jul/70Jan/71Jul/71Jan/72Jul/72Jan/73Jul/73Jan/74Jul/74Jan/75Jul/75Jan/76Jul/76Jan/77Jul/77Jan
4、/78Jul/78Jan/79Jul/79數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg，安信證券美、德、日、英實(shí)際綜合資產(chǎn)價(jià)格指（1980=100）英國(guó)日本美國(guó)德國(guó)27022017012070201971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券內(nèi)容提要?美元貶值與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)(廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議)?當(dāng)前通貨膨脹的根源和走向?大小盤估值：風(fēng)格還是周期？?短期經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場(chǎng)的判斷日元、德國(guó)馬克、英鎊兌美元匯率指（1985=100）德國(guó)馬克日元英
5、鎊240220200180160140120100Mar/85Jul/85Nov/85Mar/86Jul/86Nov/86Mar/87Jul/87Nov/87Mar/88Jul/88Nov/88Mar/89Jul/89Nov/89Mar/90Jul/90Nov/90Mar/91Jul/91Nov/91Mar/92Jul/92Nov/92數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券德、日、英、美通脹指數(shù)（1985Q1=100）德國(guó)日本英國(guó)美國(guó)15014013012011010090Mar/85Jun/85Sep/85Dec/85Mar/86Jun/86Sep/86Dec/86Mar/87
6、Jun/87Sep/87Dec/87Mar/88Jun/88Sep/88Dec/88Mar/89Jun/89Sep/89Dec/89Mar/90Jun/90Sep/90Dec/90Mar/91Jun/91Sep/91Dec/91數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券美、日、英、德股市指數(shù)（1980=100）S&P500DAX3058053048043038033028023018013080Jan/80Jun/80Nov/80Apr/81Sep/81Feb/82Jul/82Dec/82May/83Oct/83Mar/84Aug/84Jan/85Jun/85Nov/85Apr/86
7、Sep/86Feb/87Jul/87Dec/87May/88Oct/88Mar/89Aug/89Jan/90Jun/90Nov/90Apr/91Sep/91數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg，安信證券美、德、日、英實(shí)際綜合資產(chǎn)價(jià)格指（1980=100）英國(guó)日本美國(guó)德國(guó)27022017012070201971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：CEIC，安信證券美、德、日、英信貸指數(shù)（1986Q3=100）
