GENERALIZED BEHAVIORAL ASSET PRICING MODEL .pdf

GENERALIZED BEHAVIORAL ASSET PRICING MODEL .pdf

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時間:2019-03-10

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1、GENERALIZEDBEHAVIORALASSETPRICINGMODELAdamSzyszkaPoznańUniversityofEconomicsadam.szyszka@ae.poznan.plAbstractBehavioralfinanceisanareawithinfinancedisciplinethatfocusesoninvestors’behavioranddecisionmakingprocessinordertounderstandanomalouspricingofassetsandotherpuzzlingobservationstakenempiricall

2、yfromthecapitalmarket.Ithasemergedintheresponsetothedifficultiesfacedbythetraditionalfinancialtheoryinexplainingsomefinancialphenomena.Inthecontrarytotheclassicalparadigm,behavioralfinanceassumesthatagentsmaybeirrationalintheirreactionstonewinformationandinvestmentdecisions.Thesourcesofirrationali

3、tyarepsychologicalbiasesandheuristicsofahumanmind.Astheresult,themarketwillnotalwaysbeefficientandassetpricingmaydeviatefrompredictionsoftraditionalmarketmodels.ThepaperpresentstheGeneralizedBehavioralModel(GBM)thatdescribeshowassetpricesmaybeinfluencedbyvariousbehavioralheuristicsandhowthepricesm

4、aydeviatefromfundamentalvaluesduetoinvestors’irrationalbehavior.Themodeldistinguishesthreebehavioralvariablesthatarelinkedtoerrorsinunderstandingandtransforminginformationsignals,problemswithrepresentativeness,andunstablepreferences.TheultimatescaleofbehavioralmispricingdependsonameasureA–theabili

5、tyofthemarketforself-correction.Thediscussiononfactorsinfluencingeachofmodel’svariablesispresentedandillustratedwithexamples.Themodeliscapableofexplainingavastarrayofmarketanomalies,includingmarketunder-andoverreaction,continuationsandreversalsofstockreturns(momentum&contrarianstrategies),highvola

6、tilitypuzzle,smallsizeandbook-to-marketeffects,calendaranomalies,andothers.Concludingremarksincludediscussiononmodel’sadvantagesandlimitations,aswellaspotentialdirectionsforfuturedevelopmentandresearch.1.IntroductionItisformorethantwodecadesnowthatintheworld’sliteratureastormydiscussionhasbeentaki

7、ngplacebetweenfollowersoftheneoclassicalcapital1Electroniccopyavailableat:http://ssrn.com/abstract=1298910markettheoryandrepresentativesofanewtrendreferredtoasbehavioralfinance.Theneoclassicalfinancialtheoryisbas

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