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1、ChinaEquitiesInsuranceWhatwelearntfromFY18resultsChinaInsuranceTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)uLifeNBVgenerallybetterthanourestimatesinFY18butrisingcompetitioninheal
2、thandprotectionneedstobemonitoreduP&Ccommissionratiopressureeasedin2H18,whileSOEtransformationplansareinplaceuBuy-ratedPingAnH/AisourpreferredplayfollowedbyChinaPacific-HandPICCP&CImprovedlifeNBVgrowthbutnotoutofthewoodsyet:AllcompaniesreportedlifeNBVgrowthah
3、eadofourestimatesduetobetter-than-expectedmargins(exceptPingAn)andvolumes(PingAn,ChinaPacificandNCI),butstillsignificantlybelowourmedium-termgrowthexpectations.Theindustryisfocussedonincreasingitsshareofhigher-marginprotectionandhealthbusinesseswheretheimpact
4、ofrisingcompetitionneedstobemonitoredclosely.Also,agentproductivityimprovementsmaybecomemoreimportantthanjusttop-lineagentgrowthinfuture.However,itwilltakeanumberofyearsforimprovedbusinessqualityoflatemoverstocomethroughinearnings,ashighlightedbyvariationsin2
5、018residualmargingrowth.P&Cheadwindsappeartobeeasing:P&CCORsweregenerallyin-linewithexpectations;lossratioswerebetter,expenseratiosworsesinceadminexpenseratiosrosewhilecommissionratios(andtaxrates)startedtofallin2H18,suggestingregulatoryactionishavinganimpact
6、andreversingthetrendsfrom1H18and2H17.SOEtransformationplansinplace:SOEsarefocussedonhigherqualitydevelopmentandtechnologicaltransformationtoimprovesustainabilityofbusinessmodelsaswellasimprovingproductandservicequality.PingAnhasimplementedsuchstrategiesforsev
7、eralyearsalreadywithresultsincreasinglyvisible.PingAnH/Aisourpreferredplay:PingAnH/AisourpreferredplayfollowedbyChinaPacific-HandPICCP&C.WeadjusttargetpricesandestimatesafterFY18results,updateformarketmovementsandrollforwardourvaluationstoend-2019.2April2019
8、KaileshMistry*,CFAHeadofFinancialsResearch,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedkailesh.mistry@hsbc.com.hk+85228224321EdwinLiu*,CFAAssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBank
