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《基于實(shí)物期權(quán)理論的IT項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值評(píng)估模型研究》由會(huì)員上傳分享,免費(fèi)在線閱讀,更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫(kù)。
1、摘要隨著信息技術(shù)在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)各個(gè)領(lǐng)域的迅速滲透,信息技術(shù)成為提升企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力不可小覷的因素。企業(yè)要想繼續(xù)生存并得以發(fā)展,信息化建設(shè)勢(shì)在必行。但因IT項(xiàng)目具有投資大、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高、收益間接性等特點(diǎn),使得以凈現(xiàn)值方法為代表的傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法無(wú)法圓滿解決企業(yè)IT投資評(píng)估問(wèn)題。與企業(yè)對(duì)信息化的迫切需求相比,IT項(xiàng)目投資評(píng)估工作顯得嚴(yán)重滯后。因此,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行改進(jìn),建立完善的企業(yè)IT項(xiàng)目投資評(píng)估方法就顯得刻不容緩。本文分析了IT項(xiàng)目的基本特征,總結(jié)了企業(yè)IT項(xiàng)目中所包含的實(shí)物期權(quán)類(lèi)型。雖然實(shí)物期權(quán)方法可以克服傳統(tǒng)評(píng)估方法在處理不確定性方面的不足,但卻忽略了IT項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)的間接成本和收益。
2、針對(duì)這一不足,本文建立了基于實(shí)物期權(quán)的IT項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值評(píng)估模型:首先從收益和成本兩個(gè)角度建立lT項(xiàng)目投資評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系,全面衡量IT的投入和產(chǎn)出;然后使用層次分析法并結(jié)合灰色和模糊理論對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,將建立的IT項(xiàng)目評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系與實(shí)物期權(quán)方法相結(jié)合,全面衡量IT項(xiàng)目中期權(quán)價(jià)值,從而對(duì)IT項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值做出更準(zhǔn)確的分析和判斷,有利于企業(yè)做出正確的投資決策。為了檢驗(yàn)本文所建立的IT項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值評(píng)估模型的效果,本文針對(duì)同一個(gè)IT項(xiàng)目案例分別用NPV、實(shí)物期權(quán)和IT項(xiàng)目投資價(jià)值評(píng)估模型三種不同的方法進(jìn)行分析,通過(guò)實(shí)際的效果證明本文所建立的評(píng)估模型能使企業(yè)準(zhǔn)確把握IT投資的價(jià)值,提高了
3、企業(yè)管理IT投資決策的能力。同時(shí)多指標(biāo)的采用還為企業(yè)實(shí)施信息化提供了參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn),及時(shí)糾正lT建設(shè)過(guò)程中出現(xiàn)的偏差行為,對(duì)企業(yè)IT項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施具有重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。關(guān)鍵詞:實(shí)物期權(quán);指標(biāo)體系;IT投資AbstractAstheinformationtechnologyrapidpentrationinvariousfields,informationtechnologybecomesanimportantfactorwhichenhancesthecompetitivenessofenterprises.Informalizationisimperativeforenterpri
4、sestosurvive.However,ITprojectswithmassiveinvestment,high—riskventure,indirectbenefitandothercharacteristicsmakeitdifficulttosolvetheinvestmentwithtraditionalinvestmentdecision—makingmethods.Comparedtotheurgentneedsofenterprisesforinformalization,theassessmentofITprojectinvestmentisseriou
5、slylaggingbehind.SoitisnecessarytoimprovetheassessmentmethodsfortheITprojectinvestment.ThispaperanalyzesthecharacteristicsofITproject,andmakesasummaryofrealoptionstypescontainedintheITproject.AlthoughtherealoptionsmethodCanovercomethedisadvantagesoftraditionalassessmentmethodsindealingwit
6、htheuncertainties,itoverlookstheindirectcostandbenefitintheITproject.Forthisreason,thispaperestablishesanewmodelfortheassessmentofvalueofITprojectinvestmentbasedonrealoptionstheory.Firstly,thispaperestablishesanassessmentindexsysteminordertomeasuretheinputsandoutputsoftheITproject.Secondl
7、y,throughAHP,graytheoryandfuzzymathematics,thenewmodelwhichcombinesassessmentindexsystemwithrealoptionsmethodCanfullyassesstheoptionvalueoftheproject.Inordertotesttheeffectofthenewmodel,thispaperanalyzesthesameITprojectcasewithNPVmethod,realoptionsmethodandthenewmet