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1、節(jié)能減排與“十一五”規(guī)劃目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)C.S.Kiang(江家駟)Beijing,ChinaMarch28,2007PekingUniversityEnvironmentFundPekingUniversity,BeijingChinaPopulationGrowth1950-2006populationincrease>Last4millionyearspopulationincreaseEconomicGrowthGDPoftheyear2000>GDPoftheentire19thcentury人類紀(jì)時(shí)代Anthropocene——人類正在改變地球(PaulC
2、rutzen)U.S.BureauoftheCensusVitousek(1994)GLOBALCHANGESPopulationNitrogenFixationTemperatureBiodiversity………..1.全球范圍的影響地球系統(tǒng)功能的變化2.不僅僅只是氣候變化3.自然和人類的變化同時(shí)作用4.社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生物物理的變化同時(shí)作用例如:Reid&Miller(1989)Chinahas22%oftheworld’spopulationwithlimitednaturalresourcesCultivatedland:1/3ofworldaveragele
3、velWater:1/4ofworldaveragelevelForestry:1/5ofworldaveragelevelOil:1/10ofworldaveragelevelNaturalGas:1/22ofworldaveragelevelResourcesofChinaConsumption8%Oil-oftheworld40%Cement-oftheworld31%Coal-oftheworld25%Aluminum-oftheworld31%CrudesteeloftheworldProductionGDP4%-oftheworldConsumpti
4、oninChinaIfChinahasthesamepaperconsumptionpercapitalasUS,weneedfourearth’sforest.Automobileconsumption:threeearth’sleadforthebatteryRapidUrbanizationGeneratesSevereEnvironmentalProblemsEconomicCostofAirandWaterPollutionGDP5-7%(3–5%)QualityofLife&EnvironmentalHealthof460millions(500mi
5、llions)populationinUrbanEnvironmentEnvironmentalProblemsInterconnectThroughInterfaceMatterExchangebottommudNutrientSaltCarbonSourceOrganicMatterHeavyMetalorganicpollutantTerrestrialEcosystemAtmosphere–BiosphereExchangeSO2,NOx,NH3,VOCNH4+,NO3-,SO42-Oxidant(PAN,O3),particulatePAH,PCB,o
6、rganicpesticideWaterHydrophyticEcosystemHealthEffectsofAirPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Eachyear:1.5millioncasesofbronchitis,and23,000and13,000deathsfromrespiratoryandheartdiseases.In2000:600,000prematuredeaths,5.5millioncasesofchronicbronchitis,and20millioncasesofrespiratoryillnessChild
7、ren’sblood-leadlevels:upto80percentabovecriticallevels7.4millionworkingdayslosttohealthproblemsrelatedtoairpollutionHealthEffectsofWaterPollutioninChina(UNDP2002)Only19percentofthetotalpopulationhasaccesstotapwaterinChina.Thedrinkingwaterof6ofChina’s27largestcitiesdoesnotmeetChina’sn
8、ationalstand