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1、Unit5TakeaLessonfromtheEconomistsEconomics?is?the?dismal?science:?so?say?the?large?number?of?people?who?heap?scorn?on?the?intellectural?merits?of?the?discipline.?Much?of?the?criticism?comes?from?"pure"?or?"proper"?scientist?——?physicists,?chemists?an
2、d?biologists.?Now,?economics?certainly?has?its?failings.?But?the?general?way?in?which?economists?approach?and?describe?the?world,?and?how?they?convey?their?message?about?it?to?others?,?carries?lessons?which?pure?scientists?should?learn?from.?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是沉悶的科
3、學(xué):所以說(shuō),大量的人嗤之以鼻的方式的優(yōu)點(diǎn)的紀(jì)律。大部分的批評(píng)來(lái)自于“純”或“適當(dāng)?shù)摹笨茖W(xué)家——物理學(xué)家、化學(xué)家和生物學(xué)家。現(xiàn)在,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)當(dāng)然有其缺點(diǎn)。但是一般的方式方法和描述這個(gè)世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,以及他們?nèi)绾蝹鬟_(dá)他們的消息對(duì)其他人,上了一課,純科學(xué)家應(yīng)該學(xué)習(xí)。???Economics?has?inexactitudes?and?vagueness?built?into?it.?The?general?lack?of?reliable?data?about?past?events?makes?virt
4、ually?impossible?the?accurate?measurement?of?even?the?most?basic?economic?variables,?such?as?the?total?volume?of?output?in?a?country,?or?the?path?of?consumer?spending,?or?inflation.?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是由不精確性和模糊性建成的。?普遍缺乏對(duì)過(guò)去事件的可靠的數(shù)據(jù)使得幾乎不可能有準(zhǔn)確的測(cè)量,即使是最基本的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量,如一個(gè)國(guó)家的輸出總
5、量,或者消費(fèi)支出的路徑,或通貨膨脹。????If?economists?are?hazy?about?what?is?going?right?now,?they?are?even?less?sure?about?the?future.?Due?to?the?general?measurement?difficulties,?as?well?as?unforeseen?events?such?as?wars?or?natural?disasters,?economic?forecasts?are?
6、almost?always?wrong,?sometimes?by?wide?margins.?As?for?economic?theories,?they?change?almost?according?to?fashion,?with?economists?allowed?to?move?effortlessly?between?them,?sometimes?holding?several?contrasting?points?of?view?at?the?same?time.?如果經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)
7、家朦朧的關(guān)于什么將會(huì)發(fā)生,現(xiàn)在他們更不確定的未來(lái)。由于通用測(cè)量困難,以及不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的事件,如戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或自然災(zāi)害,經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)幾乎總是錯(cuò)的,有時(shí)是由寬的利潤(rùn)率。至于經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,他們改變幾乎根據(jù)時(shí)尚,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以毫不費(fèi)力地移動(dòng)它們之間,有時(shí)在同一時(shí)間持有多種截然相反的觀點(diǎn)。???The?contrast?with?scientists?could?not?be?starker.?The?tools?of?an?economist's?trade?are?muddy?data,?loose?theorising?
8、and?a?shambling?approach?to?causality?which?says?.?that?a?set?of?interactions?between?A,?B?and?C?MIGHT?lead?to?a?conclusion?Z?(and?only?via?a?roundabout?route?which?takes?in?P,?Q?and?R?as?well)?.?Scientists?have?a?harder-edged?way?of?looking?at?the?w