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1、June10,201909:00PMGMTGreaterChinaTechnologyHardware
2、AsiaPacificInitiateonTCLCorpatEW,VisionoxatUWTCL'srecentrestructuringandproductmiximprovementshouldprovidesomedowncycleprotectionamidanuncertainMORGANSTANLEYTAIWANLIMITED+SharonShihEQUITYANALYSTSharon.Shih@morganstanley.
3、com+88622730-2865JamesWeiRESEARCHASSOCIATEJames.Wei@morganstanley.com+88622730-2860LilyChouRESEARCHASSOCIATELi-Ling.Lily.Chou@morganstanley.com+88622730-2869GreaterChinaTechnologyHardwareAsiaPacificdemandoutlookandrisingtradetensions.VisionoxisapureAMOLEDplay,butithasyetto
4、establishatrackrecord.IndustryViewIn-LineExhibit1:RatingsandpricetargetsOurcautiousviewonTFT-LCDandAMOLEDdevelopment:WebelieveCompoanynameTickerRatingPriceTarget(RMB)CurrentPrice(RMB)PTupside/downsidepersistentoversupplyislikelytotakeholdin2019-21asaresultofcontinuedc
5、apacityadditionsbyChinesepanelmakers.Underthecurrentexpansionandexitplan,weexpecttheindustry'sglutratiotobeinarangeof10-20%after4Q19–similarto2015'ssupply/demanddynamics,whenpanelpricesdropped30-50%insixmonths.Inthemeantime,Sino-UStradetensionscouldexacerbatetheoversupplyi
6、ftariffsareimposedonTVsorproductslikesmartphones,notebooks,andmonitors;grosspanelareademandcoulddecrease3-4%in2019-21,weestimate.Insuchascenario,theglutratiocouldriseto15-25%,andmostpanelmakerswouldlikelyseedeterioratingprofitabilityanddecreasingpanelshipments.Ontheotherha
7、nd,webelievetherecentHuaweirestrictionscoulddelayChinesepanelmakers'AMOLEDdevelopment,consideringthatHuaweiwouldlikelybethelargestdriverofAMOLEDadoptionin2019-21.WeinitiatecoverageofTCLCorporationatEqual-weightwithanRmb3.1pricetarget:WeexpectTCLtobenefitfromitsrecentreorga
8、nization,asitsoldnon-corebusinesses(e.g.,TCLCommunication,TCLMultimedia,Tonly)backtoTCLHoldings.TherestructuringshouldimproveTCL'sfinancialperformanceasthosebusinessareeitherloss-makingorhavelowmargins.WealsoexpectTCLtoseemeaningfulsharegainsinthehigh-endTVsegment(i.e.,65"
9、and75"),underpinnedbyitstwonewGen10.5fabs.Webelieveitsimprovedfinancialperformance,aswell
