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1、Gold:TheKingisReturning06/27/2019Overweight(Maintained)NonferrousMetalsHowtochasethebigtrendingingoldmarket?AnalystZhangYidongzhangyd@xyzq.com.cnSFC:BIS749SAC:S0190510110012Goldpricehasbeenfloatingsince1971.Currencyattributesdominatedthetwo-wheeledsuperbullmarket.Theinstabilityoft
2、heUSdollarcreditisthedecisivefactorinthegoldbull,butthatisasuperficialphenomenon.Astheglobalcurrencyhegemon,theUSdollarisanexternalmanifestationofUSnationalstrength.Therefore,thepriceofgoldisareverseindicatorofthestrengthoftheUSeconomyandalsoareverseindicatoroftherelativestrengtho
3、ftheUSandnon-USeconomies.ContactHanYijiahanyij@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190517080003CouldUSdollarcreditbechallenged?Lookingbackattheconversionoftheglobalcurrencyhegemonyfromthepoundtothedollar,aftertwoworldwarsandtheGreatRecessionofthe1930s,thepoundhasbeenunabletoassumethecurrencyhegemony
4、.In1944,theUSdollarofficiallyreplacedthepoundintoaglobalcurrencythroughtheBrettonWoodssystem.Sincethen,theUnitedStateshasbeencommittedtothecontinuouspromotionoftheUSdollarthroughtheMarshallPlanandtheDodgeprogram,andencouragessettlementinUSdollars,attheexpenseofsellingthepound.Thes
5、ubprime-mortgagecrisisexposedthefragilityoftheUSfinancialsystemanddemonstratedthepowerofemergingmarkets.Sincethensomenewphenomenaemerged:(1)Worldcentralbankincreaseditspurchaseofgoldfromnetsellingtonetbuying.(2)TheUSdollarratiofellintheglobalforeignexchangereserves.(3)TheRMBisonth
6、einternationalstage.Webelievethattheoutbreakofthesubprimemortgagecrisishasacceleratedthetransitionofthedollar-dominatedinternationalsystemtoadiversifiedinternationalsystem.DuringTrump'sunilateralismandtradeprotectionism,theglobalcentralbank'sofficialgoldreservesincreasedby651.5ton
7、sin2018,reachinganewhighofnearly50years.Themotivationbehindthismaybetheriseinuncertaintyaboutglobalpoliticalandtraderisksandconcernsaboutthestabilityoftheglobalmonetarysystem.Countriesarelookingtoavoidasingledollar-dependentapproachtocompensateforandreducetherisksposedbythissystem
8、.Strongfinancialadvantagesinthepo
