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1、TheDemographicTransition:CausesandConsequencesOdedGalorBrownUniversityDecember31,2010AbstractThispaperdevelopsthetheoreticalfoundationsandthetestableimplicationsofthevariousmechanismsthathavebeenproposedaspossibletriggersforthedemographictransition.Moreov
2、er,itexaminestheempiricalvalidityofeachofthetheoriesandtheirsigni…cancefortheunderstandingofthetransitionfromstagnationtogrowth.Theanalysissuggeststhattheriseinthedemandforhumancapitalintheprocessofdevelopmentwasthemaintriggerforthedeclineinfertilityandthe
3、transitiontomoderngrowthKeywords:Demographictrnasition,GenderGap,Humancapital,Fertility,Mortality,Uni…edGrowthTheoryJELClassi…cationNumbers:O10,J1DepartmentofEconomics,BrownUniversity,Providence,RI02912(email:Oded_Galor@brown.edu).01IntroductionThedemogra
4、phictransitionhasswepttheworldsincetheendofthenineteenthcentury.TheunprecedentedincreaseinpopulationgrowthduringthePost-MalthusianRegimehasbeenulti-matelyreversed,bringingaboutsigni…cantreductionsinfertilityratesandpopulationgrowthinvariousregionsoftheworl
5、d.Thedemographictransitionhasenabledeconomiestoconvertalargerportionofthegainsfromfactoraccumulationandtechnologicalprogressintogrowthofincomepercapita.Itenhancedlaborproductivityandthegrowthprocessviathreechannels.First,thedeclineinpopulationgrowthreduced
6、thedilutionofthegrowingstocksofcapitalandinfrastructure,increasingtheamountofresourcespercapita.Second,thereductioninfertilityratespermittedthereallocationofresourcesfromthequantityofchildrentowardtheirquality,enhancinghumancapitalformationandlaborproducti
7、vity.Third,thedeclineinfertilityratesa¤ectedtheagedistributionofthepopulation,temporarilyincreasingthefractionofthelaborforceinthepopulationandthusmechanicallyincreasingproductivitypercapita.Thispaperexaminesvariousmechanismsthathavebeenproposedaspossiblet
8、riggersforthedemographictransitionandassessestheirempiricalsigni…canceinunderstandingthetransitionfromstagnationtogrowth.Wastheonsetofthefertilitydeclineanoutcomeoftheriseinincomeduringthecourseofindustrializ
