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《Influenza Early Warning Model Based on Yunqi Theory》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、?192?ChinJIntegrMed2012Mar;18(3):192-196ORIGINALARTICLEIn?uenzaEarlyWarningModelBasedonYunqiTheory1231HUXue-qin(???),GeraldQuirchmayr,WernerWiniwarter,andCUIMeng(??)ABSTRACTObjective:Toestablishanearlywarningmodeltosimulatetheoutbreakofin?uenzabasedonweatherconditionsandYunqitheory,anancientc
2、alendartheoryofChinesemedicine(CM).Methods:Tianjin,anortheasterncityinChina,waschosenastheregionofresearchandappliedthein?uenza-likeillnessattackrate(ILI)%asthebaselineandwarninglinetodeterminetheseverityofin?uenzaepidemic.Then,anin?uenzaearlywarningmodelwasconstructedbasedonthetheoryofroughs
3、etandsupportvectormachines(RS-SVM),andtherelationshipbetweenin?uenzaandmeteorologywasexploredthroughanalyzingthemonitoringdata.Results:Thepredictiveperformanceofthemodelwasgood,whichhadachieved81.8%accuracywhengroupingtheobtaineddataintothreelevelsthatrepresentnodanger,dangerofalightepidemic,
4、anddangerofasevereepidemic.Thetestresultsshowedthatifthehostqiandguestqiwerenotbalanced,thiskindofsituationwasmorelikelytocausein?uenzaoutbreaks.Conclusions:Theoutbreakofin?uenzacloselyrelatestotemperature,humidity,visibility,andwindspeedandisconsistentwithsomepartofCMdoctrine.Theresultalsoin
5、dicatesthatthereissomereasonableevidenceintheYunqitheory.KEYWORDSYunqitheory,in?uenza,meteorologicalfactors,earlywarningmodelYunqitheoryisauniquetheorythatancientsthat"fever100cF(37.8?),oralorequivalent,andstudiedtherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandcoughorsorethroat,andintheabsenceofotherdi
6、sease.Guidedbythethoughtofcorrespondencelaboratoryconfirmedevidence."Previousresearchbetweenhumanandnature,itassociatestheonthehealtheffectsofclimatechangehasmainlymeteorologicalchangesofnaturewiththestateofthefocusedontheimpactofmeteorologicalindicatorshumanbodytopredicttheoccurrenceofdiseas
7、einsuchastemperatureandhumidity.However,inthisthehumanbodyandproposesacyclicalmodelforthepaper,weaddedanewindicatortoourearlywarning(1)preventionandtreatmentofdiseases.model,i.e.,therelationshipbetweenhostqiandguestqibasedonYunqitheory.Sincet
