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1、宏觀經(jīng)濟因素對于房價影響的分析—基于廣東省的實證分析廣東金融學院何修穆、梁凱昌、許綺媛摘要近年來，廣東省房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展暴露出一些問題，房價持續(xù)走高，成為民生方面的熱點話題。木文試圖研究宏觀經(jīng)濟因索對于廣東省房價的影響：通過構(gòu)建一個較為完善的指標體系，建立VAR模型分析宏觀變量與房價的動態(tài)關系；建立多元GRACH-BEKK模型研究進一步房價與各主要的宏觀經(jīng)濟要索之間的聯(lián)動關系；以博弈論為基礎，分析政府政策以及其他人為因素對房價的影響。通過理論分析和實證研究，本文提出的建議有：一、保持經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定増長。二、對貨幣供應量的調(diào)控就當前的情況來說，應采取
2、緊縮性的貨幣政策。三、保持人民幣匯率的穩(wěn)定，防止大量的熱錢涌入房市，推高房價。四、完善現(xiàn)行住房保障結(jié)構(gòu)，實行差別化的住房金融政策，為非營利機構(gòu)建設長期出租的保障性住房提供長期優(yōu)惠貸款利率，建立對低收入者的貸款擔保機制。關鍵詞：房價、VAR模型.多元GRACH-BEKK模型、博弈論AbstractDuringtherecentyears,theestatedevelopmentofGuangdongprovincehasconfrontedw讓hsomeproblems.Theskyrocketinghousingpricesbecomea
3、hottopicofthepeopledlivelihood.Thispaperprovidestheempiricalstudyoftherelationshipbetweenrealestatepriceandthemacro-economicfactors,whichinfluencetheestateprice:structureacomprehensivedatasystem,andanalyzethedynamicrelationshipbetweentheestatepriceandthosemacro-economical
4、factorsbyestablishingtheVARmodel;establishedthemulti-modelGRACHtostudytheinteractiverelationshipbetweentherealestatepricesandthosecrucialfactors;applythegametheorytofindouttheconsistentandbalancedanddynamicconsistencybetweengovernmentandinvestors.Accordingtotheabovetheore
5、ticalandempiricalstudy,weputforwardthefollowingsuggestionstomakeamoreeffectiveregulationofGuangdong^estatemarket:Firstly,sustainthestabilityofeconomic.Secondly,regulatethesupplyofthecurrencyandformulatetherestrictivemonetarypolicyaccordingtothecurrentcircumstance.Thirdly,
6、ensurethestabilityoftheexchangerateofRMBtopreventinflowofhotmoneyintotheestatemarketandupsurgeoftheestateprice.Fourthly,betterthehousingsecuritysystem.Adoptthediscriminatinghousingfinancingpolicyandimprovethecurrenthousingsystembyofferinglongtermfavorableloanrateforthesub
7、sidizedhousingconstructedbynone-profitorganizationandbyestablishingthecreditguaranteesystemforthelowincomegroup.Keywords:EstatePrice,VARmodel,Multi-modelGRACH,Gametheory目錄摘要IAbstractII目錄I一引言11.1研究背景11.2研究意義21.3文獻綜述2二宏觀經(jīng)濟因素對房價的影響實證分析42.1宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的選取與數(shù)據(jù)的收集42.1.1變量的選取42.1.2數(shù)據(jù)的收
8、集52.2理論假設62.3實證研究72.3.1平穩(wěn)性檢驗72.3.2VAR模型滯后期選擇82.3.3VAR模型估計92.3.4Granger因果檢驗112.3.5宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的脈沖響應分析13
