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1、蒸蒸日上的中國(guó)港口業(yè)分析員:鄭棟2007年8月12日1內(nèi)容提要第一章行業(yè)基本面回顧第二章重點(diǎn)公司推薦2第一章行業(yè)基本面回顧3吞吐量大增. GDP和外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)是主要?jiǎng)恿衲晟习肽陣?guó)內(nèi)主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅較上年同期略低2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。上半年中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)11.5%,外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng)23.3%,成為港口吞吐量上升的最重要?jiǎng)恿?。資料來(lái)源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisn
2、otanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesfortho
3、secompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyany
4、institutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.4集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)最為強(qiáng)勁資料來(lái)源:中金公司研究部,中國(guó)航貿(mào)網(wǎng)在港口業(yè)務(wù)中,今年上半年集裝箱吞吐量創(chuàng)下24.4%的同比升幅,較上年同期的增速高1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn),在所有港口業(yè)務(wù)中居首。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasol
5、icitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.Thisreportmaya
6、lsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisp
7、rohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.5集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力:外貿(mào)增長(zhǎng),出口升級(jí)及運(yùn)輸集裝箱化率的提升資料來(lái)源:CEIC,遼寧師大,中金公司研究部我們的宏觀分析小組預(yù)計(jì)今明兩年外貿(mào)將分別增長(zhǎng)26%和20%。中國(guó)的出口結(jié)構(gòu)繼續(xù)升級(jí)。中國(guó)的集裝箱化率遠(yuǎn)低于國(guó)際同業(yè)。我們估計(jì)未來(lái)三年，中國(guó)港口集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)20%。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletot
