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1、JournalofEngineeringGeology工程地質(zhì)學(xué)報(bào)1004-9665／2012／20(1)一0007-08汶川震區(qū)暴雨泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)研究冰朱靜常鳴丁軍齊信(成都理工大學(xué)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與地質(zhì)環(huán)境保護(hù)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室成都610059)摘要汶川地震發(fā)生后，災(zāi)區(qū)暴雨泥石流活動(dòng)進(jìn)入一個(gè)新的活躍期。根據(jù)對(duì)：lLJiI震區(qū)2008年9月2413暴雨泥石流調(diào)查，泥石流流域中地震誘發(fā)大量滑坡導(dǎo)致松散物源巨大，泥石流過(guò)程的洪峰流量比通常的要大數(shù)倍，應(yīng)用以往泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行計(jì)算的結(jié)果與實(shí)際的誤差較大。因此，需要建立適用于強(qiáng)震區(qū)的泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)方法。本文以9．24；IkJl
2、l暴雨泥石流為典型實(shí)例，結(jié)合野外調(diào)查，利用震后高分辨航空?qǐng)D像和9．24暴雨后SPOT5圖像分別提取泥石流發(fā)生前流域中滑坡物源儲(chǔ)量及發(fā)生后形成的堆積扇特征數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用多元回歸方法建立了汶川震區(qū)泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍預(yù)測(cè)模型，該方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆積距離和堆積寬度。驗(yàn)證和應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明：該模型適用于強(qiáng)震區(qū)泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍的預(yù)測(cè)，模型方法可為震區(qū)重建中安全地段選擇和未來(lái)地震區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供重要依據(jù)。關(guān)鍵詞泥石流危險(xiǎn)范圍條件因子預(yù)測(cè)模型汶川地震中圖分類號(hào)：P642．23文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：APREDICTIoNFoRHAZARDZoNESoFRAINSToRMINDUCEDDEBRISFLoWSINTHE
3、WENCHUANEARTHQUAKEEPICENTERSZHUJingCHANGMingDINGJunQIXin(StateKeyLaboratoryofGeohazardPrevention，ChengduUniversityofTechnology，Chengdu610059)AbstractTherainstorminduceddebrisflowshaveenteredanewactiveperiodaftertheWenchuanEarthquake．Debrisflowshavehugeenergytodrainalargeamountofsedimentsandth
4、eirpeakdischargeshaveseveraltimesofthenormalevents．Suchresultsarebasedonfieldobservationoftherainstorminduceddebrisflowson24September2008intheBeichuanepicenterareas．Thisphenomenonisduetothehugeloosematerialsofearthquakeinducedlandslidesinthedebrisflowwatershed．Therefore，ithasobviouserrorsifth
5、eexistingmodelsareappliedtoestimatethehazardouszonesofdebrisflowsintheepicenterareas．Inthisway，itneedstoestablishanappropriatemodeltopredictpossiblehazardouszonesofdebrisflowsintheWenchuanEarthquakeepicenter．Thisstudyselectsthe9．24rainstorminduceddebrisflowsasatypicalcase．Itusesthehighresolut
6、ionaerialphotographandSPOT5imagestoextractasetofdataoflandslidevolumeindebrisflowdrainagebasinandalsogeometricaldimensionofdepositionalfans．Applyingthemultivariateregressionanalysis，amathematicalmodelisestablishedtoestimatethemaximumrunoutdistanceanddepositionalwidth．Thevalidationandapplicati
7、onshowthatthenewmodelissuitableforpre—dictingdebrisflowhazardouszonesintheWenchuanEarthquakeareas．Theintentofthestudywillhelpfuturedeci—sionmakersintheselectionofsafesitesduringtherehabilitationprocessandalsobeusedasanimportantbasisfor{收稿日期：2
