資源描述：
《prospect theory and decision under risk or uncertainty》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在工程資料-天天文庫。
1、ProspectTheoryandDecision10underRiskorUncertaintyOnOctober12,2007,Americaninvestorscelebratedanewhigh-watermarkastheDowJonesIndustrialAveragehitanall-timehighof14,093.Stockswerebooming,andmanypeoplewerebuying.Homevalueshadalsoincreasedsubstantiallyoverthepreviousdecade,producingsubsta
2、ntialwealthforthosewhohadinvestedinhomeownership.Manyhadtakenoutlargeloanstobuyuprealestateasaninvestment,countingoncontinuingincreasesinhomepricestoproducevalue.Withalargecohortofbabyboomerspreparingforretirement,manyhadbuiltsubstantialwealththroughstockandrealestateinvestmentsandfel
3、twellprepared?nanciallyforalongandcomfortableretirement.That’swhenthingsstartedtogosour.HousingpriceshadbeguntodeclineslightlybetweenAugustandOctober,butbyNovemberthedeclineinhomevalueshadbecometoomuchforinvestorstoignore.Stockpricesstartedaslowdeclinealso.Althoughmostprognosticatorsc
4、learlypredictedthatfurtherlossesinrealestateandstockswereahead,optimisticinvestorsbegantoreasonamongthemselves,“Ican’tgetoutnow,Iwilllosemoney.”Sentimentssuchas“Idon’twanttosellataloss.IwillwaituntilthepricegoesbackuptowhereIpurchased,andthengetout,”werecommon.InJanuary2008,realestate
5、pricesstartedasteepdecline.Manyhomeswerenowvaluedatlessthantheoutstandingdebtonthemortgage.Thosewhohadcountedonthemoneytheycouldmakeuponsellingtheirpropertytocoverthemortgagewouldnowbeforcedtodefault.Banksthathadmadetheseloanswereintrouble.Afterashortperiodofstability,thehousingmarket
6、wentintoasteepdecline,losingalmost30percentbetweenAugust2008andFebruary2009.Thestockmarkettooknotice.ByOctober2008,stockpricesbegantocrash,losingasmuchas18percentinasingleday.Investorswere?nallyreadytosellevenataloss.ByMarch2009,theDowJonesIndustrialAveragewasonly6,627.Stockshadshedne
7、arly53percentoftheirvalue.Massiveamountsofwealthhadbeendestroyed,andbabyboomerswerelefttocometogripswiththefactthattheymighthavetoputoffretirementforseveralyearsandperhapscutbackontheirplannedexpenses.Oftentheplantobuylowandsellhighdoesn’tquiteworkoutthatway.Whyareinvestorssowillingto
8、holdo
