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1、CHAPTER6Risk,Return,andtheCapitalAssetPricingModelssungbytheGratefulDead,“Whatalong,strangetripit’sbeen!”AThechartbelowprovidessomeinsightsintothestockmarket’srisksandreturns.Thetopportionshowstherelativechangesinpricesince1994forGeneralElectric(GE),GeneralMotors(GM),andtheS&P500
2、Index.Thebottomportionshowstheprice/earningsratioforGE.StockPerformance,1994-20099GEWWW8SP5007GMUpdatesonstockprices6canbefoundatmanyWebsites,includinghttp://5finance.yahoo.com.ForupdatesonP/Eratios,4seeYahoo!,ValueLine3InvestmentSurvey,orGE’sannualreports.2101994199920042009GE's
3、P/ERatio,1994-200845403530252015105019941996199820002002200420062008217218Part3:StocksandOptionsLet’stakealookatseveralsub-periods.1996–2000.TheseyearswerewonderfulforGE,greatfortheS&Pstocks,andprettygoodevenforGM.ThedramaticincreaseinP/Eratiosindicatedthatstockpricesweregoingupm
4、oreasaresultofincreasingexpectationsthanactualearnings,whichwasadangeroussign.AlanGreenspan,ChairmanoftheFederalReserveBoardatthattime,statedthatthemarketwassufferingfrom“irrationalexuberance,”butinvestorspaidnoattentionandkeptroaringahead.2001–2003.Greenspanwasright.Thebubblesta
5、rtedtoleakin2001,the9/11terroristattacksontheWorldTradeCenterknockedstocksdownfurther,andin2002fearsofanotherattackplusarecessiondrovethemarketdownevenmore.Thosethreeyearscosttheaverageinvestoralmost50%ofhisorherbeginning-of-2000marketvalue.P/Eratiosplunged,reflectinginvestors’de
6、cliningexpectations.2004–2007.Investorshadoverreacted,soin2004themarketasmeasuredbytheS&P500beganarebound,remainingstrongthrough2007.Theeconomywasrobust,profitswererisingrapidly,andtheFederalReserveencouragedabullmarketbycuttinginterestrateseleventimes.In2007theS&Phitanall-timehi
7、gh.2007–2009.Thefinancialcrisiscausedbymortgage-backedsecuritiesspilledoverintothestockmarketsandtheeconomy,causingarecession.After2009:BullorBear?Wewishweknew!Investinginstockscanbequiteprofitable,butitmeansbearingrisks.Thekeytosmartinvestingistoestimatetheamountofriskdifferents
8、trategiesentail,thereturnsthosestrategie
