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1、Completed13Oct201707:55PMEDTDisseminated13Oct201707:59PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober13,2017GlobalDataWatch?Underlyinginflationlagsbroad-basedpickupinactivityindicatorsContents?DownsiderisksfromNAFTAandBrexittickhigherGlobalgrowthpickupisasbroad?Germanuniontalkshintatw
2、ageinflation;CE4coreontheriseasitisimpressive15US:Consumerspasstheirtriennial?Nextweek:China3QGDP(6.2%),SepIP(0.8%);USSepIP(0.5%)financialcheckup18Thechallengeisinthemoment:NowcastingJapanGDP20BreakonthroughtothebroadersideAustralia:Capex,currencyandtheThesustainedd
3、rumbeatofpositiveactivityindicatorsnudgedour3Q17glob-curve23alGDPforecastshigheragainthisweek.AnupwardrevisiontoourprojectionGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4forUSgrowthlastquarterto3%arpushesourtrackingofthepasttwoquar-GlobalCentralBankWatch6ters’globalgrowthtoa3.5%ann
4、ualizedpace—afullpercentagepointaboveNowcastofglobalgrowth7ourestimateofpotential.AlthoughbriefepisodesofstrengthfollowedbySelectedrecentresearchfromslowinghavemarkedtheexpansion,ourconfidenceishighthattheglobal9J.P.MorganEconomicseconomyisinastrong,sustainedgrowthp
5、haseforthefirsttimethisexpan-TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10sion.BolsteringourconfidenceistherecognitionthatthegrowthupturnisDataWatchesglobal,reflectingthefadingofdisinflationarydragsconcentratedinEMandUnitedStates25fromcommodities.Justasthesedragsgeneratedwidesectoral
6、andregionalEuroarea31divergencesover2014-16,theirfadinghasrebalancedglobalperformanceJapan35(seetheresearchnote“Globalgrowthpickupisasbroadasitisimpressive”Canada39Mexico41inthisGDW).Indeed,75%ofthecountriesinourglobalaggregatehavegen-Brazil43eratedabove-trendgrowth
7、overthepastyear,andsimilarbreadthisevidentinArgentina45thepickupinmanufacturingandprivatesectordemand.UnitedKingdom47EmergingEurope49Althoughtheinitialimpulsesarelikelyfading,thepositivefeedbackonbehaviorEMEAEMfocus53isstillsupportinggrowthaccordingtothelatestindica
8、tors.MostnotableistheAustraliaandNewZealand54broad-basedstrengthinbusinessspendingandconfidencethisquarter,indicatingChina,HongKong,andTai
