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1、Completed06Oct201708:30PMEDTDisseminated06Oct201708:34PMEDTEconomicResearchOctober6,2017GlobalDataWatch?GlobalgrowthiscruisingandCPIinflationisreboundingfrom2QdipContents?Withdemandgrowthstrong,supplysideimprovementisneededThenextmoveinglobalinflationisup15?ShiftingECBfore
2、casttosharperinitialtaperheldforlongerDMcentralbanksinmotionasu-ratenears40-yearlow17?Nextweek:BigdatainUS:retailsalesup2%andCPIup0.6%m/mAssessinghousingcorrectionriskacrossUScounties21Argentina:2018budget,adetourHeySay:Willdemandcreateitsownsupply?fromgradualism24Notwiths
3、tandingthemonthlyvolatilityinUSandChinadata,webelievetheJapan:Jobgrowthunlikelytohaltevenasagingadvances26globaleconomyclearlyissignalingthatitwillsustaingrowthclosetothe3.2%Diagnosingthehealthofrecordedoverthepastyear.MonetarystancesremainhighlyaccommodativeAustralianempl
4、oyment28andpoliticaldevelopmentsaretiltingfiscalstancestowardmodeststimulus.Australia:RenewedrelevanceforMeanwhile,financialconditionsremainsupportiveanditishardtoidentifyananimalspiritsinhousing32additionalpost-financialcrisisreverberationlurkingintheshadows.ConsistentGlo
5、balEconomicOutlookSummary4withthisview,ourall-industryglobalPMIheldsteadylastmonthatalevelGlobalCentralBankWatch6consistentwith3.2%globalGDPgrowth(Figure1).PerhapsmostencouragingNowcastofglobalgrowth7aresignsthatabroad-basedrecoveryinglobalcapitalspendingistakinghold.Selec
6、tedrecentresearchfrom9Thisweek’sreportsshowedUSandGermancapitalgoodsshipmentsbothupatJ.P.MorganEconomicsadouble-digitannualizedpaceinthethreemonthsthroughAugust.TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates34The2QglobalCPIinflationdipalsoappearstobebehindus(seetherese
7、archEuroarea42note“Thenextmoveinglobalinflationisup”inthisGDW).FoodandenergyJapan46pricedeclineswereimportantcontributorstothisdip,aco-movementdownthatCanada50Mexico52isunusualalongsiderapidlygrowinggoodsdemand.TheenergypricedrophasBrazil54beenreversed—apointtobeunderscore
8、dinnextweek’sUSSeptemberreport,Argentina56whichweexpecttopostasecondconsecutivelargeheadl
