資源描述：
《全球-宏觀策略-全球宏觀數(shù)據(jù)觀察.docx》由會(huì)員上傳分享，免費(fèi)在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、GlobalDataWatch·Marketsellsoffasdownsideriskstogrowthbuild·MuchcanchangebyDecember,butFedstayingthecoursefornow·Othercentralbanksalsoseemtolookthroughrecentsoftpatch·Upnext:USOctpayrolls(200k),EMUOctinflation(core1.2%oya)TrustbutverifyEarlierthismonth,weassociatedtheglobalequ
2、itymarketcorrectionwithbuildingdownsideglobalgrowthrisks.Theserisksrelatedtotheglobalex-pansion’sincreaseddependenceonUSdemand,intensifyingUS-Chinatradetensions,higheroilprices,andconcernsovertheEuroareagrowthtrajecto-ry—allamplifiedbythestep-wisemovehigherinUSbondyields.Neve
3、rthe-less,wedidnotseethemarketsell-offasasignificantchallengetotheout-lookgivenourconvictionthatgrowthwouldfirmin4Qonanumberoftran-sitorydragsfading,adétenteinUStraderelationsonanumberoffrontsotherthanChina,andanabsenceofabroadertighteninginfinancialconditions.Sincethen,theda
4、taflowhasonbalancedisappointed,whilethesell-offinequitymarketshasdeepened.Althoughwedonotthinkstresseshavebuilttothepointthatwewouldreconsiderourcallforglobalactivitytosustainanotheryearofabove-potentialgrowth,thismonth’snearly10%slideinUSandglobalequitymarketsshiftsthebalanc
5、eofrisksmoreclearlytothedownside.Althoughwetakecomfortthattheequitymar-ketsell-offhasnotspilledoverintoasignificanttighteninginfundingandcreditmarkets,thealignmentoftheequitymarketcorrectionwithanoticeablesofteninginglobalindustryoutsidetheUSisconcerning.Thenear-termoutlookha
6、srestedonthreepillars,eachofwhichisnowbeingchallenged:·USengineofgrowthfacingheadwinds.TheUSpostedrobustgrowthlastquarter,withGDPexpandingastronger-than-expected3.5%ar.Consumerspendingwasthestandoutperformer,underscoringourviewthatthehealthofhouseholdbalancesheetsandstronglab
7、orincomegrowtharepowerfulfoundationsfortheoutlook.However,theimprintof200bpofFedhikesistakingatoll,asclearlyseeninhousingandautosalesandhintedatinbusi-nessinvestment.Weexpectgrowthtoslowto2.5%evenasfiscalstimuluspeaksthisquarter,butthemonthlydatahassoftenedandour12m-aheadre-c
8、essionprobabilityindexhasmovedabove30%thisweek—thehighestsincemid-20
