資源描述:
《全球-宏觀策略-全球數(shù)據(jù)觀察》由會(huì)員上傳分享,免費(fèi)在線閱讀,更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、GlobalDataWatch·DMcoreinflationisacceleratingbutlatestreadingshavedisappointed·2Q18globalGDPforecastat3.7%ar,onbackofDMrevisionsup·Chinalikelytolimititscurrencyslidefromhere·Nextweek:USGDPbounce(4.4%);flashPMIs;CBRT(+125bp);ECBAmodestbutunevenliftincoreinflationLastmo
2、nth’syear-agoreadingsonglobalandDMinflationstoodatthehigh-estlevelsinsixyears,at2.6%and2.3%respectively.Thisnewsisnot,how-ever,asignalthatglobalinflationhasnormalized.WhenthevolatileCPIfoodandenergycomponentsareremovedfromthesereadings,globalandDMcoreinflationarestill
3、lowandremaininlinewiththeiraveragesinrecentyears.ItistheDMwhereweexpectedanupwardtrajectoryincoreinflationtotakeholdthisyearasadeflationaryimpulsefromEMhasfadedandunemploy-mentrateshavefallentonearly40-yearlows.Inaddition,wearereceivingconfirmationinourviewthatglobali
4、ndustryispickingupintomidyearandtheUSdemandenginehasshiftedintohighgear.Weforecastnextweek’sadvancereporttoshowthatUSGDProseata4.4%arlastquarter.Consistentwiththemacroeconomicbackdrop,welookforDMcoreinflationtoincreaseto1.8%thisyear.In1H18,DMcoreinflationpickedupmodes
5、tly,toa1.6%ar,withJunereadingsgenerallydisappointing.Tworecentinflationdevelopmentsareworthnoting:·USandEuroareatrackwhileJapandisappoints.Throughavolatilemonthlypattern,USandEuroareacoreinflationhavetrackedclosetoourforecastsfortheyear(Table1).However,otherDMeconomie
6、shavedisap-pointed.Japanstandsoutascorepricesfellduring1H18,asharpcontrasttoourforecastforaccelerationatthestartoftheyear.Evenafterasignificantdowngradetoour2018forecastinrecentmonths,Japaneseinflationwillneedtodelivera2H18overshoottohitour0.6%forecastfortheyearasawho
7、le.·Anabsenceofanexpectedpickupincoregoodspriceinflation.Weex-pectedthisyear’sDMcoreinflationrisetobeconcentratedingoodspricesassynchronizedstrengthinglobalgoodssectoractivityincreasedproducerpricingpower.Intheevent,manufacturingoutputdownshiftedatthestartoftheyearand
8、anascentriseinDMgoodspriceswashalted(Figure1).Ariseincoreservicepriceinflationpartiallyhasoffsetthisdisappointment.Economic