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1、GlobalDataWatch·DMcoreinflationisacceleratingbutlatestreadingshavedisappointed·2Q18globalGDPforecastat3.7%ar,onbackofDMrevisionsup·Chinalikelytolimititscurrencyslidefromhere·Nextweek:USGDPbounce(4.4%);flashPMIs;CBRT(+125bp);ECBAmodestbutunevenliftincoreinflationLastmo
2、nth’syear-agoreadingsonglobalandDMinflationstoodatthehigh-estlevelsinsixyears,at2.6%and2.3%respectively.Thisnewsisnot,how-ever,asignalthatglobalinflationhasnormalized.WhenthevolatileCPIfoodandenergycomponentsareremovedfromthesereadings,globalandDMcoreinflationarestill
3、lowandremaininlinewiththeiraveragesinrecentyears.ItistheDMwhereweexpectedanupwardtrajectoryincoreinflationtotakeholdthisyearasadeflationaryimpulsefromEMhasfadedandunemploy-mentrateshavefallentonearly40-yearlows.Inaddition,wearereceivingconfirmationinourviewthatglobali
4、ndustryispickingupintomidyearandtheUSdemandenginehasshiftedintohighgear.Weforecastnextweek’sadvancereporttoshowthatUSGDProseata4.4%arlastquarter.Consistentwiththemacroeconomicbackdrop,welookforDMcoreinflationtoincreaseto1.8%thisyear.In1H18,DMcoreinflationpickedupmodes
5、tly,toa1.6%ar,withJunereadingsgenerallydisappointing.Tworecentinflationdevelopmentsareworthnoting:·USandEuroareatrackwhileJapandisappoints.Throughavolatilemonthlypattern,USandEuroareacoreinflationhavetrackedclosetoourforecastsfortheyear(Table1).However,otherDMeconomie
6、shavedisap-pointed.Japanstandsoutascorepricesfellduring1H18,asharpcontrasttoourforecastforaccelerationatthestartoftheyear.Evenafterasignificantdowngradetoour2018forecastinrecentmonths,Japaneseinflationwillneedtodelivera2H18overshoottohitour0.6%forecastfortheyearasawho
7、le.·Anabsenceofanexpectedpickupincoregoodspriceinflation.Weex-pectedthisyear’sDMcoreinflationrisetobeconcentratedingoodspricesassynchronizedstrengthinglobalgoodssectoractivityincreasedproducerpricingpower.Intheevent,manufacturingoutputdownshiftedatthestartoftheyearand
8、anascentriseinDMgoodspriceswashalted(Figure1).Ariseincoreservicepriceinflationpartiallyhasoffsetthisdisappointment.Economic
