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1、GlobalDataWatch·Globalconsumerisliftingintomidyear,cushioningcapexslowdown·Coreinflationslipsinresponsetoweakerglobalgoodssector·Chinadataareokaybeforelateststorm;morepolicyeaseannounced·Nextweek:FOMCtoconveyaneasingbias;flashPMIstofallfurtherAwelcomebut(likely)temporaryconsumptionboost
2、Recentdatapointtoasharpdivergenceinthesourcesofglobalgrowth.Weaknessintheglobaleconomyisconcentratedinbusinessspending,whereourcapexnowcasteristrackingacontractionthisquarteroutsideChina.Thisdraghasbeenbuildingandistheprimarychannelbywhichdecliningglobalbusinesssentimentisweighingonglob
3、algrowth.Thelatestintensificationofthetradewarshouldfurtherdepresssentimentandwehaveloweredourglob-alcapexforecastfor2019tonoexpectedgain.Incontrasttobusinessspending,globalretailsalesgainsareaccelerating.Onthebackofthisweek’spositivereportsfromtheUS,China,andJapan,retailspendingistrack
4、inga4%arincreasethisquarter—animpressiveoutcomeinthefaceofhigherinflation(Figure1).AfterFriday’ssurprisinglystrongMayretailsalesreport,wehaverevisedcurrentquarterUSGDPgrowthup0.75%-ptto1.75%.Therelativestrengthofconsumerspendingreflects,inpart,stronghouseholdfundamentals,includingsolidl
5、aborincomegains,andlowerborrowingrates.InChina,householdtaxcutsareanimportantcomponentofpolicysupports.Whilethehouseholdsectorisnotimmunetogeopoliticalconcerns,fundamentalshaveheldconsumerconfidenceclosetocyclicalhighsatthesametimethatcorporatesectorangsthasintensified(Figure2).Despitet
6、hesesupportswedownplaythisrecentaccelerationasitisaligningspendinglevelstofundamentalsafterasurprisinglyweakstarttotheyear.Indeed,thenextmoveinconsumerspendingshouldbeasoftening.Thebounceoffofdepressed1Q19spendinglevelsshouldsoonfadeandbusinesssectorcautionshouldstartspillingintoslowerj
7、obgrowth.Globally,employ-mentgainsareexpectedtoslipbelowa1%paceinthecomingmonths,ledbytheUSwhereweexpectemploymentgainstoslowtoa120,000monthlypacein2H19,downfromanaveragemonthlygainofroughly200,000overthepreviousyear.EconomicResearchJune14,2019202428313316Globalanimalspiritssl
