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1、GlobalDataWatch·2020growthpickupledbyEMAsiaandWEasUSslowstotrend·IndiaRBItoleadlatestroundofEMhighyieldeasingnextweek·SupplydisruptionsaremagnifyingJapan’s4Q19contraction·Nextweek:NovmfgPMIup;solidUSjobgains;OPECcurbsextendedTheendofUSexceptionalismThisweekwepublishedou
2、r2020globaleconomicoutlook,whichfocusesonthecontinuedtug-of-warbetweenpoliticalconflictandmacroeconomicpoli-cy.Thenegativebusinesssentimentshockrelatedtoconflictscurrentlyhastheupperhandandweanticipateglobalgrowthwillstarttheyearatasubparpace.However,weexpectthreerelate
3、ddevelopmentstoformthefoundationforareboundtotakeholdbymidyear.First,globalbusinesssentimentshouldfirmascorporatefearsaboutBrexit,US-Chinatrade,andidiosyncraticshocksinotherlargeeconomies(e.g.,Italy,Russia,India)fade.Second,continuedfiscalandmonetaryeasingshouldbuildsup
4、portsthroughfinancialmarketconditions.Third,astheseforcesbegintoturnthegrowthtide,theliftshouldbereinforcedbyfirms’decisiontostartnormalizingglobalcapexandinven-torystock-buildingthatareexpectedtoslidetodepressedlevelsbythemiddleofnextyear.Aswasthecasefollowingotherwave
5、sofweakness—theEuro-peansovereigncreditcrisis(2012-13)andtheEMcreditunwind(2014-15)—globalgrowthshouldreboundbroadlyledbyanupturninmanufacturing(Figure1).However,thetimingandmagnitudeofthisreboundremainuncer-tainanddependimportantlyonspecificdynamicsatworkineachofthreel
6、argeregionalblocs.·EMAsiamovesearly,butChinapolicyshifttotemperlift.WeexpecttheinitialimpetusforstrongerglobalgrowthinEMAsia,aregiondeliver-ingbroad-basedfiscaleaseandgearedtomanufacturing.Recentevidencesuggeststhisturnalreadymayhavestarted,ledbythetechsector.Althoughth
7、eregionalmanufacturingoutputPMIhasmovedhigherforfourconsecu-tivemonthswelookfornextweek’sEMAsiaNovemberreadingtostepbackmodestlyasChina’sdeclineoffsetstech-ledincreasesexpectedelse-where.Chinashouldcontinuetotemperregionalliftnextyear.AnexpectedtrucewillnotresolvetheUS-
8、Chinaconflict,andisanticipatedtodampeninvestmentandexportgrowth.FadingglobalconcernsshouldalsopromptChineseaut
