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1、GlobalDataWatch·Industrialslowdownlikelytoreverse,businesscautionagreaterthreat·EMAsiatechcycleendsearly,Chinatradelookssoft·Euroareacoreinflationfirmedbutunderlyingpaceremainsaconcern·Nextweek:QuietFOMC,ChinatradeslowsinOct,All-industryPMIsButcloudsgotinmywayDespitesome
2、recoveryinriskmarketsthisweek,datacontinuetopointtoslowingmomentuminglobalindustry.SeptemberIPreadingsgenerallydis-appointedandglobalmanufacturingoutputgainsslowedtoa1.7%arlastquarter.OurOctoberglobalPMImanufacturingoutputreadingalsoslippedtoitslowestlevelinmorethantwoye
3、ars.Asmomentumswingsinthemanufac-turingsectoroftenarealeadingedgeofturnsinthebroaderbusinesscycle,thisnewschallengesourviewthatbothmanufacturingandglobalGDPwillcontinuetogrowatanabove-trendpaceinthecomingquarters.Lookingmorecloselyatthedata,thesignalsaremixed.Thisweek’sr
4、eportedOctoberreboundinGermanautoproductionandupbeatprojectionsofJapa-nesemanufacturerssupportourviewthatthepowerfultemporarydragsonglobalindustrylastquarterarepoisedtolift.Thisweek’sUSOctoberreportsalsopointtocontinuedsolidIPgains.Takingthesetogetherwiththesteadysolidga
5、insinourglobalfinalgoodsdemandproxy,weremainconfidentthatfactoryoutputisontracktoacceleratetowarda3%arthisquarter(Figure1).Whilewelcome,thisnear-termliftisatriskofbeingunderminedbythreatsfromthecloudsonthehorizon:·Asiatechmomentumslippedearlierthanexpected.Despitethedrag
6、fromslowingChinademand,weexpecttechactivityinEmergingAsiatobeboostedin2H18bystrongglobalcapexgains.Weexpectedamobile-deviceproductcycletoprovideanaddedboostbeforewaninglaterthisquarter.Thelatestnewsshowsproductionandexportgainsalreadymoder-atingaslastquarterended(Figure2
7、).ThefallinDRAMpricesandKoreansemiconductorexportslastmontharefurthersignsofsoftness.·Thewarontrade’shittosentimentloomslarge.Intrackingthedragfromrisingtradetensions,wehavefocusedontheindirectimpactthroughsentiment.Wedidnotexpectthisdragtoaffectcurrentperformanceandasar
8、esult,weturntobusinessexpectationsasagauge.SurveydatanowEconomicResearchNovember2,2018Contents18202416
