資源描述：
《麥格理-印度-宏觀經(jīng)濟-印度mpc會議紀要：關(guān)注通脹上行風險》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsMinutesoftheMPC–ConcernedCPI–Headline,FoodandCore(YoY%)aboutupsideriskstoinflation16%HeadlineCPIinflationYoY%14%CoreCPIInflation(CPIex?MinutesofFebMPCmeetingreleased:TheRBIreleasedtodaytheminutes12%FoodexFuel)oftheMPCmeetingheldonFebruary6-7,2018.Recall,theRBIhadhel
2、dkey10%CPIFoodinflation8%ratesunchangedwithavoteof5-1,withMPCmemberDr.Patradissenting6%fora25bpratehike.Inourview,theMPCminutescameacrossasslightly4%morehawkish(atthemargin)comparedtotheoveralltoneofthe2%thmonetarypolicystatementof7Feb.0%-2%?What’sinthedetails?n-12l-12n-13l-13n-14l-14
3、n-15l-15n-16l-16n-17l-17n-18JaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJa?Upsideriskstoinflationremainaconcern:TheMPCminutesSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018highlightedthatallmembersremainconcernedregardingupsideriskstoinflation,especiallyasvariousmeasuresofinflationseemtobeconvergingabovethe5%
4、mark.TheriskstoinflationaspertheMPCmembersstemfrom(1)fiscalslippageinthecurrentyearandthedelayHouseholdinflationexpectationsinachievingthefiscalconsolidationroadmap,(2)inflationaryimpactfromgovernment’spolicytofixminimumsupportpricesat1.5xcost,(3)15customdutyhikesannouncedinthebudget,
5、(4)turninglobalcommodityprices(thoughmembersalsohighlightedthepossibilityofoil10pricestocorrectassupply-sideresponseevolves)and(5)uncertaintyfrommonetarypolicynormalizationindevelopedeconomies.OntheInflationExpectations-3Mdownside,thelikelysupply-sideresponseandimpactonoilprices,5Ahea
6、dInflationExpectations-12Movercapacityinthesystemandgovernment’sfoodmanagementpolicyAheadwerealludedto.0?Gettingmoreconfidentaboutreboundingrowth:Themembersnotedc-06c-07c-08c-09c-10c-11c-12c-13c-14c-15c-16c-17DeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDeDethatincominggrowthdataispointingtowardsstrengthening
7、growthSource:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018momentum.Membersseemedmoreconfidentabouttherecoveryingrowthanditnotbeingjustabaseeffectrelatedincreaseingrowth.?Whatmadethemajorityofthemembersvoteforapausedespitehighlightingupsideriskstoinflation?Thenascentgrowthrecovery,whichneedssome
8、suppo
