資源描述：
《麥格理-印度-宏觀經(jīng)濟-印度經(jīng)濟：聚集國家大選》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關內(nèi)容在行業(yè)資料-天天文庫。
1、INDIAIndiaEconomicsStateElectionCalendarStateelectionstobeinfocusConclusion?PoliticalcommentarytotakecentrestagewiththeupcomingstateelectionsinGujaratandHimachalPradesh:Sincethegovernment’stwobigpolicydecisionsofdemonetizationandimplementationofGST,electoralr
2、esultsarebeinglookedattoassesstheacceptabilityofthemeasures.BJP’svictoryinUttarPradeshwasseenasavirtualreferendumonthedemonetizationdecision.Inthiscontext,theupcomingstateelections,GujaratandHimachalPradeshinNov/Dec2017,couldbeconstruedasaverdictontherecently
3、implementedGoods&ServiceTax.Source:ElectionCommission,MacquarieResearch,October2017Conclusion?Gujaratelectionsmoreimportantfrommarket’spointofview:TherulingBJPgovernmenthasbeeninpowersince1995inGujaratandisPMModi’shomestate,implyingtherewillbegreaterinteresti
4、ntheparty’sperformanceinthestateelections.?GujaratelectionstoprobablyseemorecommentaryaroundGST/demonetization:Amongstthetwostates,Gujarathasalargerpresenceofsmall-scalebusinesses/traderswhichanecdotallyhavebeenimpactedadverselybybothdemonetizationandimplemen
5、tationofGST,againincreasingthestateelection’simportance.?Votesharetrendsappearfavourablefortherulingparty:BJP’svoteshareinGujarathasremainedsteady(havingdeclinedbyonly1.5%since2002)andthestrongperformanceinsomeofthekeystate/locallevelelectionspost2014generale
6、lectionscreatesafavourableoutlookfortherulingparty.?RecentopinionpollfavoursBJP:Indeed,therecentlyreleasedopinionpollbyIndiaTodaygroupindicatesthatBJP’svotesharewilllikelyremainsteadyandthepartyisexpectedtowin110-125seats(vs.115seatswonin2012outoftotal182seat
7、s).ThepollalsosuggeststhatBJPwilllikelygainmajorityinHimachalPradeshwinning43-47seats(ofatotal68seats).?Strengthofelectionvictorywillbeassessed:GivenGujaratisaBJPstronghold,marketsmaylookatthestrengthofthevictorytogaugethepoliticalmoodinthecountry.Inourview,t
8、hestrengthofthevictorycouldswaythenarrativeonGSTandtiltofgovernmentpolicies.?PossibilityoffavourablestateelectionoutcomealongwiththemegaPSUbankrecapplanmayfurtherkeepmarketsentimentsuppor
