predicting financial distress of companies預(yù)測公司財務(wù)困境

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1、PREDICTINGFINANCIALDISTRESSOFCOMPANIES:預(yù)測公司財務(wù)困境：REVISITINGTHEZ-SCOREANDZETAMODELS再論Z-SCORE和ZETAMODELSEdwardI.Altman*PredictingFinancialDistressofCompanies:RevisitingtheZ-ScoreandZETAModelsBackground背景Thispaperdiscussestwoofthevenerablemodelsforassessingthedistressofi

2、ndustrialcorporations.本文討論兩種評估實業(yè)公司困境的古老模型。Thesearetheso-calledZ-Scoremodel(1968)andZETA1977)creditriskmodel.他們就是所謂的Z-Score模型（1968）和ZETA信用風(fēng)險模型。Bothmodelsarestillbeingusedbypractitionersthroughouttheworld.他們至今仍被廣泛的使用著。ThelatterisaproprietarymodelforsubscriberstoZETASer

3、vices,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ).后者是ZETAServices,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ)用戶的專用模型。Thepurposeofthissummaryaretwo-fold.這篇總結(jié)的目的有兩個方面。First,thoseuniquecharacteristicsofbusinessfailuresareexaminedinordertospecifyandquantifythevariableswhichareeffectiveindicatorsandpredictorsofcorporatedistr

4、ess.首先，檢查那些企業(yè)倒閉的特性用來指出和確定企業(yè)困境有效的指標(biāo)和預(yù)測值的數(shù)量。Bydoingso,Ihopetohighlighttheanalyticaswellasthepracticalvalueinherentintheuseoffinancialratios.如此，我希望強調(diào)財務(wù)比率運用中天生的分析和實踐價值。Specifically,asetoffinancialandeconomicratioswillbeanalyzedinacorporatedistresspredictioncontextusingam

5、ultiplediscriminantstatisticalmethodology.具體地說，是使用多個判別統(tǒng)計方法將一系列財務(wù)和經(jīng)濟比率在一個企業(yè)困境預(yù)期的環(huán)境中進行分析。Throughthisexercise,Iwillexplorenotonlythequantifiablecharacteristicsofpotentialbankruptsbutalsotheutilityofamuch-malignedtechniqueoffinancialanalysis:ratioanalysis.通過這個操作，我不僅將探討潛在

6、破產(chǎn)的可計量特性，也將探討比率分析——這個財務(wù)分析中備受質(zhì)疑的方法的實用價值。Althoughthemodelsthatwewilldiscussweredevelopedinthelate1960’sandmid-1970’s,Iwillextendourtestsandfindingstoincludeapplicationtofirmsnottradedpublicly,tonon-manufacturingentities,andalsorefertoanewbond-ratingequivalentmodelforem

7、ergingmarketscorporatebonds.將被討論的模型在20世紀(jì)60年代末期和70年代中期已經(jīng)成熟，盡管如此，我會把測驗和研究結(jié)果拓展至包含未上市企業(yè)的申請和非制造業(yè)團體，也會結(jié)合新型市場公司債券的債券評級等值模型。ThelatterutilizesaversionoftheZ-ScoremodelcalledZ”.后者用的是Z-Score的一個變型，稱作“Z”。Thispaperalsoupdatesthepredictivetestsondefaultsandbankruptciesthroughtheyea

8、r1999.本文亦更新預(yù)測性測試數(shù)值和1999年的破產(chǎn)。AsIfirstwrotein1968,anditseemseventruerinthelate1990’s,academiciansseemtobemovingtowardtheeliminationof