計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)論文 商蘇陽(yáng)

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1、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)論文國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值影響因素價(jià)格、投資和進(jìn)出口的計(jì)量分析12商92蘇陽(yáng)學(xué)號(hào)12089028摘要：GDP幾年來一直保持穩(wěn)定上升發(fā)展，作為衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值收到多方面的影響，因此分析了解這些因素對(duì)GDP的影響程度以及效果是很有必要的。下面就試圖用多遠(yuǎn)線性回歸模型針對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)商品價(jià)格、投資總額、進(jìn)出口總額對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的做簡(jiǎn)單的計(jì)量分析，并找出其中規(guī)律。一、建立模型，選取數(shù)據(jù)被解釋變量（Y）解釋變量：商品價(jià)格（X1）投資總額（X2）進(jìn)出口總額（X3）模型形式：Y=C+b1X1+b2X2+b3X3+u二、數(shù)據(jù)錄入Eviews，使用OLS法進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析?利用Evi

2、ews軟件對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行OLS分析，結(jié)果如下：分析數(shù)據(jù)選取1983年至2013年，如圖表所示：年份GDP商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)投資出口額進(jìn)口額進(jìn)出口總額19835985.55101.53231.1860.1438.3421.819847243.75102.837421201580.5620.519859040.74108.84687.42066.7808.91257.8198610274.381065302.12580.41082.11498.3198712050.62107.36126.13084.214701614.2198815036.82118.57868.13821.81766.

3、72055.1198917000.92117.88812.64155.91956.12199.9199018718.32102.19450.95560.12985.82574.3199121826.2102.910730.67225.83827.13398.7199226937.28105.413000.19119.64676.34443.3199335260.02103.216412.1112715284.85986.2199448108.46121.721844.220381.910421.89960.1199559810.53114.828369.723499.912451

4、.811048.1199670142.49106.133955.924133.812576.411557.4199778060.85100.836921.526967.215160.711626.1199883024.2897.439229.326849.715223.611806.5199988479.159741920.429896.216159.813736.4200098000.4598.545854.639273.220634.418638.82001108068.2299.249435.8642183.622024.420159.22002119095.6998.75

5、3056.5751378.226947.924430.32003134976.9799.957649.8170483.536287.934195.62004159453.6102.865218.4895539.149103.346435.82005183617.37100.872958.71116921.862648.154273.72006215904.4110182575.4514097477597.263376.862007266422103.896332.5166863.793563.673300.12008316030.34105.9111670.4179921.471

6、00394.9479526.532009340319.9598.8123584.62150648.0682029.6968618.372010399759.54103.1140758.65201722.15107022.8494699.32011468562.38104.9168956.63236401.99123240.6113161.42012518214.75102190584.6244160.21129359.25114800.962013566130.18101.4212187.5258212.3137154.1121058.2數(shù)據(jù)來源：國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局三、將數(shù)據(jù)錄入Evie

7、ws，使用OLS法進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析?利用Eviews軟件對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行OLS分析，結(jié)果如下：由輸出的結(jié)果可知：y=-60696.86+476.4004x1+2.261960x2+0.836699x3(-2.061407)(1.734483)(14.86640)(3.699119)R^2=0.997435修正的R^2=0.97150F=3499.308DW=0.378929查表得T0.05=2從表中可以看出b2b3的t值是顯著大于2的而b1的t值是小于2的。所以b1顯著為0,b2、b3顯著