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《地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響研究——基于中國省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)分析》由會(huì)員上傳分享,免費(fèi)在線閱讀,更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、萬方數(shù)據(jù)地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響研究——基于中國省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)分析摘要中國在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型階段遭遇實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡不振的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì),為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長而大量發(fā)行貨幣導(dǎo)致流動(dòng)性泛濫,卻出現(xiàn)銀行、股市、中小企業(yè)都缺錢的反?,F(xiàn)象。由于我國產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過剩,相當(dāng)部分的貨幣資金因周轉(zhuǎn)速度低而沉淀于流通領(lǐng)域,尚有資金盈余的大型企業(yè)和民營企業(yè)不敢擴(kuò)大投資,大量存在于生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的資金被利益集團(tuán)和腐敗官員截流,或用于非生產(chǎn)性投機(jī)活動(dòng)或流失海外。資本逐利性導(dǎo)致的資金錯(cuò)配使得資金使用效率降低,真正用于發(fā)展實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和提供社會(huì)保障的資金供應(yīng)不足,經(jīng)濟(jì)
2、發(fā)展受到制約。顯而易見,貨幣資金與地下經(jīng)濟(jì)之間有著緊密的聯(lián)系,這是本文研究我國地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響的初衷。本文首先梳理了國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者關(guān)于地下經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的研究成果,重點(diǎn)研讀了國外關(guān)于地下經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融發(fā)展關(guān)系的研究;概述我國地下經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,并對(duì)地下經(jīng)濟(jì)影響金融發(fā)展的機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。其次,本文利用1994--2012年間省際面板數(shù)據(jù),采用MIMIC模型法估測(cè)了中國地下經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模,發(fā)現(xiàn)近幾年來東部沿海,黃河中下游、長江中下游以及西北地區(qū)部分省市的地下經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模較大,地下經(jīng)濟(jì)與萬方數(shù)據(jù)金融發(fā)展存在一定相關(guān)
3、性。再次,通過建立固定效應(yīng)模型和廣義矩估計(jì)模型,利用估測(cè)出的地下經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模與可獲得的金融發(fā)展指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)證分析我國地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響。得出的結(jié)論是:地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展的影響是非線性的,適度的地下經(jīng)濟(jì)有利于金融發(fā)展,過高的地下經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)金融發(fā)展有負(fù)面影響,金融抑制則會(huì)加劇地下經(jīng)濟(jì)形成,因此,抑制地下經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張速度,將其控制在一定范圍內(nèi)是有必要的。最后,本文提出的建議包括:對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有益的地下經(jīng)濟(jì)加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管,無益的嚴(yán)厲打擊,最根本的方式是加快體制改革,完善社會(huì)保障體系,縮小貧富差距,改善人民生活質(zhì)量。關(guān)
4、鍵詞:地下經(jīng)濟(jì);金融發(fā)展;MIMIC模型;廣義矩估計(jì)萬方數(shù)據(jù)lIIIIIIIIIlullIUlIIlUIIIIIY2751157ASTUDY0NUNDERGROUNDECONOMYANDTHEIMPACTONFlNANClALDEVELOPMENT——BASEDONPROVINCIALPANELDATAINCHINAABSTRACTIntheeconomictransformationstage,Chinaissufferingtheserioussimmionoftheentity’Seconomi
5、cmalaise.Tostimulateeconomicgrowth,releasealargeamountofmoneyleadstoexcessliquidity,andanabnormalphenomenonthatthebanks,thestockmarket,thesmallandmedium—sizedenterprisesareshortofmoneysynchronously.DuetotheseriousexcesscapacityinOUrcounti]/,aconsiderabl
6、eamountofmoneydepositsinthefieldofcirculationbecauseoflowvelocity,lotsofmoneyexistinthefieldofproductionareinterceptedbyinterestgroupsandcorruptofficials,usedforunproductivespeculationortransferabroad,andlargeorprivateenterpriseswhichwithsurplusfundsare
7、afraidtoexpandinvestment.Fundingmismatchcausedbycapitalprofit—drivenreducestheuseefficiencyoffunds,thelackofmoneyappliedintheIII萬方數(shù)據(jù)developmentoftherealeconomyandimprovementofsocialsecuritywillrestrictseconomicdevelopment.Evidently,fundsarecloselylinked
8、withtheundergroundeconomy.Itistheoriginalintentionthatthispaperstudytheimpactundergroundeconomichasonfinancialinourcountry.Firstly,thispaperhecklestheresearchaboutundergroundeconomycarriedoutbyexpertsandscholarsathomeandabroad,fo