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1、PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportDEEPDIVEGLOBALMARKETECONOMICS
2、MACROQUANT&DERIVATIVES
3、EQUITY&DERIVATIVES
4、G10INTERESTRATES
5、CROSS-ASSETKEYMESSAGESSluggishinflationisnotauniquelyEuropeanphenomenon.TheUSisnotmuchbetterthantheeurozoneinthisrespect,inourview,withthedifferencesbetwe
6、entheircoreratesduemostlytomethodology.WeexpectweakinflationpersistinginQ3,combinedwithsofteninggrowthanddoubtsaboutcentralbanks’toolkits,tokeepweighingoninflationexpectations.WeseesomeupsidetocoreinflationinQ4,thankstohigherwagegrowthandseveraltemporaryheadwindswashingoutofthedata.Anypickuplate
7、rthisyearandgoingintonextyearislikelytobelimited,however,asfirms’pricingpowersremainheldbackbyweakgrowthandstructuralfactorssuchasglobalisation,digitalisationanddemographics.EurozoneandUSinflation–NotsuchgreatexpectationsBNPParibasinflationforecastsHeadlineinflationCoreinflation20182019202020182
8、0192020USCPIEurozoneHICP2.41.81.71.81.21.22.11.02.12.31.11.3TRADEIDEASEUR5y5y/15y15yswapBEIflattenerBNPPend-of-cyclelong/shortequitybasket*Averageofperiod;Sources:BEA,Eurostat,BNPParibasforecastsfor2019and2020CONTENTSIntroduction2Outlook3Cyclicalfactorsandtemporaryheadwinds6Structuralfactors8Me
9、asurementdifferences10Centralbanktoolkit12Importtariffs13Labourcostsandprofitmargins14Authors17Legalnotice18
10、DEEPDIVE14/06/2019Formore,seeourGlobalOutlookQ32019:Late-cyclecarry,published21May1INTRODUCTIONInflationmarketstradingatasharpdiscounttocentralbanktargetStructuralentrenchmentoflowinflati
11、onexpectationsinUSandeurozone:Positiveinflation‘risk’premiawerecrushedinthesecondhalfof2014andremainclosetoorbelowzero(seetopchart).IntheUS,5y5yinflationforwardisaround2.00%(or?30bpversusanimpliedinflationtargetof2.30%=2%FedPCEtarget+30bpspread).Inthe10yearsuptomid-2014,thepremiumaveraged+60bpan
12、dhasbeenclosetoflatsincethen.Intheeurozone,the5y5yEURinflationforwardisatrecordlows(1.12%)and80bpbelowanimpliedECBHICPtargetof1.90%(ex-tobacco).Since2014,EUR‘inflationriskpremium’hasaveraged?26bpversus+43bpintheprevious10yea
