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1、FLASH
2、USPleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport31July2019MARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、G10INTERESTRATESUSFOMC:HawkishcutKEYMESSAGESStatementretainsguidance,withacaveatTheJulymeetingbeganinlinewithexpectations.TheTheFOMCcutrates25bpandanno
5、uncedanearlyendtoFOMCcutratesby25bp,andannouncedthatbalancebalancesheetnormalizationatitsJulymeeting,inlinesheetnormalizationwouldendinAugust,twomonthswithourexpectations.earlierthanoriginallyindicated.TheCommitteemadefewsubstantialchangestoitsThestatementalsoc
6、ameinlinewithourexpectations.statement,retainingexistingguidancethatitwillactasTheCommitteemadenoupgradestoitsassessmentappropriateinlightofuncertaintiestotheoutlook.ofthecurrenteconomy,despiteastrongmonthofThepressconference,however,sawChairPowellpushJunedata,
7、andreiteratedthatpersistentuncertaintiesbacksomewhatagainstmarketpricingandcharacterizeandmutedinflationpressureswouldcontinuetoFedpolicyalongthelinesofamid-cycleadjustment.causeitto“actasappropriatetosustaintheexpansion.”WhilewedonotthinktheChairwantedtomateri
8、allyTheCommitteemadetwochangestothestatement,tightenfinancialconditions,weseehiscommentsasanhowever,thatwenote.Thefirstwasexplicitlycitingefforttoretainsomeoptionality.“globaldevelopments”intermsofriskstotheoutlook,WethinktheJulymeetingoutcomesupportsourviewfor
9、whichwesawassomewhatdovish,giventhelikelytheFedtocutratesonlyoncemorethisyear,by25bpinpersistenceofweakglobalgrowth.September.ThesecondchangewasaddingthattheCommitteewould“continuetomonitortheimplicationsofincominginformation…as[it]contemplatesthefuturepathofth
10、etargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate.”Weinterpretedthisadditionashawkish;asignalthattheCommitteedoesnotseefurthercutsasnecessarilygiven.Fig.1:FinancialconditionsFig.2:FedfundsfuturespricingvsBNPPforecastSources:Bloomberg,BIS,FederalReserve,Macrobond,BNPParibasSou
11、rces:Bloomberg,,FederalReserve,Macrobond,,BNPParibasDanielP.Ahn,ChiefUSEconomistandHeadofMarkets360NorthAmerica
12、FLASHAndrewSchneider,USEconomist
13、DanielKatzive,HeadofFXStrate
