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1、摘要摘要目前國內(nèi)的交通規(guī)劃的理論與實(shí)踐大多以城市交通為對(duì)象展開的,關(guān)于農(nóng)村公共客運(yùn)的相關(guān)理論研究較少。論文正是以此為背景,通過對(duì)農(nóng)村客運(yùn)的全面走訪調(diào)研,對(duì)農(nóng)村客運(yùn)乘客出行、客流特征,客流預(yù)測(cè),線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃,班線組織與運(yùn)營等方面進(jìn)行了探索性研究。首先,論文結(jié)合南京市農(nóng)村客運(yùn)乘客的出行問卷調(diào)查和客流統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果的分析,從乘客社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特性、乘車頻次、出行目的分布、出行時(shí)間分布、出行空間分布等方面總結(jié)并歸納了農(nóng)村客運(yùn)乘客的出行特征,從客流構(gòu)成、時(shí)間分布、空間分布、集散特征等方面研究了農(nóng)村客運(yùn)的客流特征。其次,論文對(duì)農(nóng)村客運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行了研究。由于農(nóng)村客運(yùn)量的歷史數(shù)據(jù)和資料較少,因此在對(duì)比分析了幾
2、種常見的客運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)方法,選取回歸分析法作為農(nóng)村客運(yùn)量的預(yù)測(cè)方法。論文以南京市農(nóng)村地區(qū)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)建立了以鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)人口、國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值為指標(biāo)的客運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè)的多元回歸模型。再次,論文分析了農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)布局規(guī)劃的目的、影響因素,歸納總結(jié)了農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)的布局形態(tài),研究了線網(wǎng)總體規(guī)模的確定方法,提出了農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)的三級(jí)結(jié)構(gòu)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,研究了三級(jí)線網(wǎng)的不同規(guī)劃方法,分別是先利用路線走向搜索法規(guī)劃主干線,再通過最小樹理論規(guī)劃支線,最后規(guī)劃補(bǔ)充聯(lián)絡(luò)線。論文還對(duì)農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)與城區(qū)其他客運(yùn)方式的銜接模式作了探討。最后,為確保規(guī)劃的農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)能夠長期運(yùn)營,既要保證運(yùn)營者的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,又要體現(xiàn)一定的社會(huì)公益性,論
3、文提出并建議農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng)采取片區(qū)聯(lián)營的運(yùn)營組織方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)“冷熱線”的搭配,研究了運(yùn)力配備方法,并建立了班線優(yōu)化配置的模型。關(guān)鍵詞:客流特征;客流分布;客運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè);農(nóng)村客運(yùn)線網(wǎng);線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃;運(yùn)營組織AbstractCurrentlymostoftheoriesofk,caltransportationprogrammingandpracticeareaboutcitytransportation.concerningtheFuralpublicpassengertransportationless.Takethis醛thebackground,theessaystudiedthecha
4、racteristicsoftheguestflow,thepredictwayofraraltransportationquantity,thenetwokplanning,publictransportdispatchingere,basedOllinvestigationtoruraltransportationpassengers.Firstly,thethesisanalyzedtheguests’questionnairesandstatisticsofguestflowofmraitransportationinNanjing.Itinducedthemralpass
5、engertransportationpassengers’characteristic.suchasthesocialeconomiccllaracteristics。thefrequencyoftrip,thepurpose.time&spacedistributionere.Italsogavethecharacteristicsofguestflow,suchasthecomposingofgoestflows,time&spacecharacteristic,gatheringandspreadingcharacteristic.Secondly,thethesisstu
6、diedthemethodforpredictingthemraltransportationquantity.Asthehistorydataofruralpassen留ertransportationjs1ess.thepapercontrastedtoafewfamiliarpredictmethodsforpassengertransportationsquantity,andchoosedthemodelofregressasthefitableone.WiththecovariancedataoftheFuraltransportationpassengervolume
7、inNaniing.thepaperbuiltuptheregressmodelforpredictingruralpassengertransportationquantity,bytakingvillagepopulation.GDPastherelatedindex.Thirdlv-thethesisanalyzedthepurposeandinfluencefactorofruralpassengertransportationnetworkplanning.